The three most debatable things in football right now are Robert Griffin III V.S. Andrew Luck, Roger Goodell V.S. The City Of New Orleans, and Tim Tebow V.S. The World. I will be taking on the last of the three first.
By Tim Tebow Versus the world I am referring to the many analysts saying he does not deserve to be in the NFL, however, the real debate here is whether or not Tim going to the New York Jets was a good move by the Jets and a good fit for Tebow.
In the end only time will tell if it was indeed, a good move. First let us look at the facts. Tim Tebow, against all odds and with a 1-4 team, made it to the playoffs. Before I go any further I want to make it clear, after Tebow became the starter the defense stepped it up and began playing out of their mind. Matt Prater looked and played like Adam Vinatieri, and the entire team started playing much better than before. I will not take credit away from the rest of the team like so many Tim Tebow supporters love to do.
Tebow has a 12-6 Touchdown to Interception ratio, which is much better than Cam Newton's 21-17 ratio. He also has over 100 more passing yards than Cam has in 2 less games. My point from all of those stats is that if Cam Newton is considered a viable NFL QB then so should Tebow. The main knock on Tim, his low accuracy, should be blamed mostly on his very few passing attempts per game. With so few attempts one or two drops could create a 20% swing in completion percentage. Tebow also threw almost exclusively deep passes, which contributed to a low completion percentage also.
Let's make a more valid comparison, a comparison of teamates, Tim Tebow versus Mark Sanchez.
Last year Sanchez threw for 3,474 yards with 28 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, with a 56% completion percentage on 200 more attempted passes than Tebow. Tebow had 2,383 yards, on, as I said 200 less attempts. With a 48% completion percentage. It is worthy of note that he was running the pathetic imitation of the Spread Option that Denver's OC Mike McCoy came up with. Now if you want the whole story on Tim, you have to look at his rushing stats as well. If you combine them with his passing stats then he has 29 total touchdowns in less games than Sanchez started last season. My point is that Tebow, if the Jets will let him run a no-huddle NFL offense, will be a better NFL QB than Sanchez. I believe this is an amazingly exciting pickup for the Jets. Because even if he doesn't win the starting job from Mark Sanchez he can still be a factor through the use of Tony Sparano's Spread Option Wildcat.
The Question then becomes, is it a good fit for Tim Tebow, should he really be so excited to be a jet? Is it really that exciting of a prospect for Tim Tebow, will he have as much exciting fun as he thinks he will? All joking aside, I see the Jets as a great fit. He has a good quality receiver in Santonio Holmes and solid Tight End with Dustin Keller. The Jets also have one of, if not the best run blocking O-linemen in the NFL. They have two solid running backs in Joe McKnight and Shonn Greene, as well as arguably the best defense in the NFL. All in all this is a great move for the Jets, and an exciting fit for Mr. Tebow.
This is the best pure analysis I have read in a while about Tim Tebow. Good Job
ReplyDeleteNoah
ReplyDeleteI think that getting into a statistical analysis is pointless as numbers can always be skewed/explained to tilt towards the outcome you want. BTW Tebow threw for 1729 yards and a 46.5% completion % which is different than what you state. He and Sanchez both have horrible yds/attempt figures @ 6.4.
With that said I think the thing with TT to realize is he cannot set up and throw in the pocket. At least not yet. In the last home game against the Chiefs which I witnesses (a must win game at the time, remember the Broncos backed into the playoffs on a tiebreaker against the Chargers and Raiders)he was 6-22 throwing the ball and most of them weren't close. It was simply a horrible performance. The Chiefs shut down his running option and forced him to throw from the pocket.
This brings up your comments about the spread offense. It was Denver's only option and they new it early on because of TT's lack of throwing ability. The misdirection and running allowed for them to keep defenses off balance. In the end I think it took its toll. Tebow had chest and shoulder injuries toward the end of last year because of the hits he took. This type of offense cannot be sustained. It has been tried in the NFL but it is just too hard on the QB (ask Vick).
They were 1-3 against playoff teams last year with TT as a starter (inc.the wild card game win)and I think the real test came in the playoff game against the Patriots. They had time to prepare and shut down the option spread forcing Tebow to throw from the pocket. It showed that TT can't get into a shootout style game which is the current NFL offensive reality.
The intangibles having Tebow on the team are nullified by the cult following by his fans which is disruptive and divisive. The problem for him is the way they won most of their games last year propelled him into phenom territory that his skills cannot maintain.
In conclusion the Jets are as good as any place. Sanchez is an average QB in his own right and maybe TT can compete. I do disagree about their receivers. They need to sign a marquee receiver with size(Schilens isn't it). You can't trust Holmes and Keller is functional as a TE.
Tebow just doesn't pass the eyeball test with me and others who are not caught up in the phenom part. Elway knew this and Manning was probably the only way he could ship out Tebow and not get strung up.
Thanks for the blog....Keep up the good work
Warren
Oakland, CA
Warren,
ReplyDeleteI took the stats from all of Tebow's regular season games(1st and 2nd season), as he has only played 14 regular season games. That is why my stats are different than yours.
As far as him not being able to set up and throw from the pocket, he did pretty good in his first three games (the last three of his rookie year) when he was running Studsville's offense.
I completely agree on your point of the psychotic following of fans he has and that Elway took the only option viable to get rid of Tebow. The other thing people should realize is that Tebow has started 14 regular season games. He is practically a rookie in that respect and should be given time to develop. But I think his running ability and raw intangibles make him a better QB than Mark "The Hotdog" Sanchez.
Thanks for the feedback,
Noah James Smith
Baton Rouge, LA