NFL Predictions

Here are my annual predictions for the start of the NFL Regular Season.

1. Kenny Vaccaro will win the Defensive Rookie of The Year award.
Looking at the Pre-Season Vaccaro really impressed me with his tenacity and nose for the ball. His knowledge of the Game and his good instincts are what really set him apart from the rest of the rookie defenders out there. While there are some really good athletes in this draft, Vaccaro seems like the player who knows what he is doing the most. Defenders who were taken at the top of the draft like Dion Jordan and Ziggy Ansah are very raw as football players. Even Dee M illiner, who by all accounts is a very polished corner back, doesn't have the type of instincts Vaccaro does. He Is not the ridiculous physical freak that some defenders are, but he has the kind of instincts it takes to be an elite defensive back, and because of this will be the defensive rookie of the year.

2. The New Orleans Saints Defense will finish in the top 10 in points allowed and in turnovers this season
With Rob Ryan's aggressive and bloodthirsty 34 defense in place the Saints are primed to have the kind of success they had in 2009 when they won the super bowl. Despite the loss of Will Smith for the season (which I do not believe to be that big of a blow) The Saints have some really good players on defense. They have a stud defensive end in Cameron Jordan and a very good run stopping defensive end in Akiem Hicks. Along with two promising rookies (John Jenkins and Kenny vaccaro) the saints also have yound outside linebackers junior gallete and martez wilson. With a rebuilt secondary and a retooled defense, the saints should be able to make the plays they couldn't last year and finish the year as a top 10 defense in terms of turnovers and points

3. The Colts will beat the 49ers in The New Meadowlands and win super bowl XLVIII.

Division Winners NFC
NFC South: New Orleans Saints 2^nd seed
NFC East: Washington Redskins 4^th seed
NFC WEST: San Fransisco 49ers 1^st seed
NFC North: Green Bay Packers 3^rd seed
Wildcard Teams NFC
Atlanta Falcons 5^th seed
Seattle Seahawks 6^th Seed

Division Winners AFC
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts 2^nd seed
AFC East: New England Patriots 3^rd seed
AFC West: Denver Broncos 1^st seed
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals 4^th seed

Wildcard Teams AFC
Houston Texans 5^th seed
Baltimore Ravens 6^th seed

NFC Playoff Bracket

Atlanta @Washington -------> Washington @New Orleans
Winner: Washington winner: New Orleans
Seattle @Green Bay -----------> Seattle @San Francisco
Winner: Seattle Winner: San Francisco

NFC Championship game
New Orleans @San Francisco
Winner: San Francisco
AFC Playoff Bracket

Baltimore @New England-------------> New England @Indianapolis
Winner: New England Winner: Indianapolis
Houston @ Cincinnati-----------------> Cincinnati @Denver
Winner: Cincinnati Winner: Denver

AFC CHAmpionship
Indianapolis @Denver
Winner: Indianapolis

Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts VS San Francisco 49ers
Winner: Colts
After a regular season in which Andrew Luck and the colts come up just short to Peyton Manning and the Broncos, getting the number 2 seed, the Colts come out swinging by sending the Patriots home in the divisional round. This leads to a showdown in which Luck  defeats Peyton Manning and goes, doing in his second year what Peyton Manning couldn't do until his seventh Season. They go on to face the 49ers, who just edge out the Saints in the NFC Championship to make it to the Super Bowl. Despite a strong showing by Colin Kaepernick and an M V P worthy performance by Anquan Boldin Luck manages to pull the game out on a last second touchdown to win the game 27-24.

Matt Scott and the Pistol

 When looking at the undrafted free agent hauls each team has had after the draft, the team that stands out to me is the Jaguars. Bringing in undrafted free agent QB Matt Scott from Arizona, to me, is one of the best additions of the offseason. Matt Scott has starting QB potential, between his athletic ability and strong arm, he could be the next RGIII\Colin Kaepernick type of QB. Combined with the additions of versatile RB Denard Robinson from Michigan and franchise LT Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M, the Jags are in prime position to start competing in the next couple of seasons.

 Matt Scott could potentially beat out Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert in training camp, remember, Gus Bradley comes from Pete "competition at every position" Carroll, So I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Jags depth chart read something like this:

1. Matt Scott

2. Jordan Rodgers

3. Blaine Gabbert

Emergency backup: Denard Robinson.

Yes, I'm saying Chad Henne could be cut,  Chad Henne is expendable, and the only reason Gabbert isn't also expendable is because of his contract.

 The biggest advantage to Matt Scott winning this QB competition would be that he can run the Pistol Spread Option offense, something else that the Seahawks implemented last season. They should take more of the Redskins concepts of the read option however, and not as much of the Seahawks.

This would be the base formation of a Pistol based attack.
14                                   o o [x] o o                                         84
                                                              89
                                      16   4                                       
                                        
                                          32


For those of you who do not know how to read football formations here is a legend:

14: Justin Blackmon WR | 84: Cecil Shorts III WR | 16 Denard Robinson (Shoelace) RB |

89 Marcedes Lewis TE | 32 Maurice Jones Drew (M JD) RB | 4 Matt Scott QB

 They will have to replace Justin Blackmon for the first 4 games, but the basic idea is to line up and run the triple option, read option, RB sweeps/powers, dives, traps, and as well as Play Action passes, sprint out passes, and just straight drop back and pass. With Shoelace and MJD in the backfield, the Jags would have two great receivers out of the backfield, that they could exploit against LBs and safeties in the passing game, especially on Play Action passes. On the triple option plays they could either sweep Shoelace or MJD as the initial read and then have the other back be the pitch man on the second read. There are many other variations of the triple option, such as running a midline read up the middle with MJD or motioning the TE around the field.

The other thing that makes this offense very viable is Matt Scott and Denard Robinson both have experience running variants of this offense in the college game, they both have deep knowledge of the Zone Read, and as such this offense would really benefit them.

 If Gus Bradley is smart, he will run some of this offense, even if Blaine Gabbert does keep the starting job, Gabbert can run enough to make decent use of the option plays as well. As long as the QB is fairly mobile, you can run this as the idea is to hand the ball off, but not have to block a backside defender because he has to stay home to watch the QB. If the Jags do something similar to this, and continue to rebuild, they could be in the playoffs by next season, if not this season.

Final Mock Draft

1.Kansas City Chiefs

Final Projection: Eric Fisher Central Michigan

According to Jay Glazer, Albert Breer, and many other insiders, Eric Fisher is the favorite for

the no.1 pick, and I completely agree with this pick. I think Fish is the better OT and I really

like this pick.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Final Projection: Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M

The potentially best player on the board is a no brainer here. End of story.

3.Oakland Raiders

Final Projection: Star Lotulelei DT Utah

This pick feels like the best overall player at this spot. It basically will come down to Star Lotulelei versus Shariff Floyd, if they take Star then Shariff Floyd will probably fall into the middle of the 1st round. If they take Shariff Floyd here, Star Lotulelei could go to the Eagles at 4.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Final Projection: Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma

The Eagles need help on the O-Line, despite Dion Jordan still being available here, I think the Eagles go with either Lane Johnson or Jonathan Cooper. I think Lane Johnson fits their need better than Jonathan Cooper or Lane Johnson. I could also see them trading down here to get a few more picks.

5. Detroit Lions

Final Projection: Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU

The Lions are reportedly interested in this kid, and honestly I think it's the perfect fit. Dion Jordan is more of an OLB and would not be as good of a pure pass rushing fit as Ziggy.

6. Cleveland Browns

Final Projection: Geno Smith QB West Virginia

I went back and forth on this pick, I thought Geno, but then Dion Jordan. I have to go with Geno Smith, just like Mike Mayock is predicting. I love Geno with the Brown, I figure worst case scenario, he gets beat out and sits for a year behind Jason Campbell.

7. Arizona Cardinals

Final Projection: Jonathan Cooper OG

The Cardinals would love to have Lane Johnson here, but I seriously doubt he is still here. With that being the case, I have to agree with Mike Mayock again and say they take Jonathan Cooper. I think this is a good fit, and helps Bruce Arians begin to rebuild the Cards decimated O-Line.

8. Buffalo Bills

Final Projection: Matt Barkley QB USC

It has recently come out that the whole Ryan Nassib connection was nothing more than a giant smokescreen to throw other teams off of the Bills real plan. As many people know Doug Marrone has been drooling over Matt Barkley for a few years now. Barkley also is closer to a QB like Drew Brees, who Doug Marrone has worked with before, and would fit his offense.

9. New York Jets

Final Projection: Dee Milliner CB Alabama

After trading away Darrelle Revis to the Buccaneers, the Jets are in need of a CB to pair with Antonio Cromartie. Dee Milliner could very well be the next Darrelle Revis, and if they hit gold on this pick, Rex Ryan could very well save his job.

10. Tennessee Titans

Final Projection: Chance Warmack OG Alabama

I've felt ever since the combine that Jonathan Cooper was the best Guard in this draft class, however he is no longer on the board so I see them taking the next best thing which is Chance Warmack. I think he fits with the Titans perfectly, and gives them a very gifted and athletic interior lineman.

11. San Diego Chargers

Final Projection: DJ Fluker OT Alabama

If the Chargers do not trade up to get a true LT then this makes absolutely perfect sense. Phillip Rivers will thank me, as DJ Fluker is a much better pass protector than he gets credit for. I think he can probably play on the left side, contrary to popular belief, and the Chargers get a very good player here.

12. Miami Dolphins

Final Projection: Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State

The Dolphins need a replacement for Sean Smith and Xavier Rhodes is the best remaining CB. I could see them trading down here, or possibly taking DJ Fluker.

13. New York Jets

Final Projection: Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU/ Dion Jordan OLB Oregon

To me, this comes down to either KeKe Mingo or Dion Jordan. I think KeKe comes off the board here because he is the better raw pass rusher. But really, either one could come off the board here.

14. Carolina Panthers

Final Projection: Shariff Floyd DT Florida

Carolina benefits from the free fall of the most explosive one gap perpetrator in this draft by picking up Shariff Floyd at 14. They need help in the middle of the defensive line and this just solidifies the middle better than anyone else available here

15. New Orleans Saints

Final Projection: Dion Jordan OLB Oregon/ Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU

No matter which player the Saints get here, they will greatly improve their defense. Despite their production last season, the Saints actually have some decent players on the defensive side of the ball. Rob Ryan's 34 Defense combined with Jordan or KeKe sets the Saints up for a surprise run in the playoffs.

16. St. Louis Rams

Final Projection: Tavon Austin WR West Virgina

The Rams need someone to replace Danny Amendola, and Tavon Austin does that perfectly. The Rams get a steal at 16.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Final Projection: Jarvis Jones

The perfect replacement for James Harrison has appeared and fallen to the Steelers. Jarvis Jones is the only pass rushing man big enough to play in the Steelers scheme, Dion Jordan? Barkevious Mingo? both of them are too small, Jarvis Jones is the perfect fit.

18. Dallas Cowboys

Final Projection: Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri

This boy is the second most explosive DT in the draft, behind Sharrif Floyd. As Mike Mayock pointed out, he was so athletic they lined this 310 lbs man child at linebacker in college.......LINEBACKER!!!! A 310 LBS LINEBACKER, ARE YOU KIDDING ME

19. New York Giants

Final Projection: Bjoern Werner DE Florida State

Basically, he is Osi Umenyiora 2.0. The Giants are always looking for good pass rushers, and Bjoern Werner fits the bill. I like this kid as a NASCAR package pass rusher on the outside with JPP, Tuck, and Kiwi.

20. Chicago Bears

Final Projection: Manti Te'o MLB Notre Dame

.....I hate Mike Mayock. I came up with this three days ago, but I'm going to look like I'm copying Mayock now. Oh well, anyway, Manti Te'o is a better fit for a 43 defense than a 34, despite playing in the 34 in college. I like him as the next in a long line of quality Bears MLBs and think he helps the Bears not feel of the loss of Brian Urlacher.

21. Cincinnati Bengals

Final Prediction: Kenny Vaccaro SS Texas

The Bengals biggest need in this year's draft is safety, sure they need a running back, but I think they can get a solid back, possibly Marcus Lattimore, in the later rounds.

22. St. Louis Rams

Final Prediction: Eric Reid FS LSU

He would be a great fit for the Rams, filling the only major hole on their defense. I think they address their need at Guard in a later round by taking Kyle Long from Oregon, reuniting him and his brother Chris.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Final Prediction: Alec Ogeltree MLB Georgia

The Vikings get the absolute perfect Tampa 2 MLB in this draft. A former safety, Ogeltree is an amazingly athletic prospect, and great in coverage. He is long and lean and is a great steal by the vikings here.

24. Indianapolis Colts

Final Prediction: Margus Hunt DE SMU

The Eastern Block, Margus Hunt. The Colts get their very won JJ Watt clone with this pick, taking the 4th boom or bust prospect in the first round, behind KeKe Mingo, Dion Jordan, and Tavon Austin. This fills a need for the Colts and give them a really good player at this spot.

25. Minnesota Vikings

Final Prediction: Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee

The Vikings get a play making receiver to replace Percy Harvin here. The Vikings make big strides towards becoming a consistent playoff team with the additions of Patterson and Ogeltree.

26. Green Bay Packers

Final Prediction: Datone Jones DE UCLA

The Packers get a very nice 5 tech DE right here. This man has JJ Watt Esq skills, albeit at a lower level. The Packers get a good interior pass rusher at 26, helping them to have a one two punch with Clay Matthews.

27. Houston Texans

Final Prediction: Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M

This is my number 1 WR right here. The kid can flat out play, he is has excellent hands and ridiculous speed. He will really get a chance to shine in the Texans offense with Andre the Giant and Arian Foster keeping the pressure off of him.

28. Denver Broncos

Final Prediction: Sam Montgomery DE LSU

The Broncos get a very good, underrated 43 DE here, helping the Broncos to replace Elvis Dumervil. Sam is not as good as Elvis by any stretch, but he is a much better option that Damontre Moore in my opinion.

29. New England Patriots

Final Prediction: Jamie Collins OLB Southern Mississippi

One of my personal favorite pass rushing OLBs in this draft class, I absolutely prefer him over Damontre Moore. While the Pats could use help in the secondary, I think Jamie Collins is the better fit, especially in New England's 34 defense.

30. Atlanta Falcons

Final Prediction: Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame

The dirty birds get a second TE to use along with, and eventually to replace, Tony Gonzales. While they could go after a CB, TE is a bigger long term need.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Final Prediction: Zach Ertz TE Stanford

Jim Harbaugh get's one of his former TEs from Stanford to replace Delanie Walker. Ertz has similar skills to Delanie Walker and fits as an H-Back in the 49ers offense.

32. Baltimore Ravens

Final Prediction: Kevin Minter ILB LSU

The replacement for Ray Lewis appears on the scene, not in the form of Manti Te'o but as Kevin Minter from LSU. Minter has the ability to shut down the run consistently, however he is not as good in coverage. He plays very similar to Takeo Spikes or Curtis Lofton in the run game, being very powerful at the point of attack.

Updated Mock Draft 1-15

Sorry for the delays, I have been very busy as of late. I actually had this done a few days ago but was waiting for confirmation on the Matt Flynn trade.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Previous Projection: Luke Joeckel LT Texas A&M

Players Considered: Luke Joeckel LT Texas A&M, Shariff Floyd DT Florida, Star Louteleli DT Utah.

Updated Projection: Luke Joeckel LT Texas A&M

Sorry Mel Kiper, I still like Joeckel here, Shariff Floyd is good but not good enough to be taken no.1 overall. The Chiefs still have a bigger need at LT than they do at DT. If they get Brandon Albert to sign to a long term deal I would see them taking Shariff Floyd and solidifying their D-Line.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Previous Projection: Jarvis Jones OLB/DE Georgia

Players Considered: Jarvis Jones OLD/DE Georgia, Dion Jordan OLB/DE Oregon, Ezekial Ansah OLB/DE BYU, Geno Smith QB West Virgina.

Updated Projection: Ezekial Ansah OLD/DE BYU

This is exactly the kind of player Gus Bradley needs for his defense, this is his version of Chris Clemons. Ziggy is a freak of nature who can rush from the outside in a base defense or move inside in Nickel situations. I think Dion Jordan is a better prospect but Ziggy is a better pass rusher and ultimately, a better fit for the Jaguars.

3. Oakland Raider

Previous Projection: Shariff Floyd DT Florida

Players Considered: Shariff Floyd DT Florida, Star Louteleli DT Utah, Margus Hunt DE/DT SMU, Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri.

Updated Projection: Star Louteleli DT Utah.

Basically the same reasons I gave for them taking Shariff Floyd, they need a DT but I have sense decided that Star is a better player than Shariff Floyd. Also the Raiders have no need to take Geno Smith as they now have Matt Flynn in the fold.
 

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Previous Projection: Star Louteleli DT Utah

Players Considered: Shariff Floyd DT Florida, Margus Hunt DE/DT SMU, Dion Jordan OLB/DE Oregon, Bjoern Werner DE/OLB Florida State, Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M.

Updated Projection: Margus Hunt DE/DT SMU

I know everyone wants to put Dion Jordan with Chip Kelly but I think the Eagles go with the Eastern Block, Margus Hunt here. He fits the kind of players that Chip likes on defense, big, long, and athletic. Looking at the Eagles defense they have a quality NG in Isaac Sopoaga and a good Pass Rusher to put at OLB in Trent Cole. What they really need is another good interior lineman to put at DE and Margus Hunt fits the bill perfectly. Hunt is the next JJ Watt and is a perfect fit for the Eagles.

5. Detroit Lion

Previous Projection: Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU

Players Considered: Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU, Sam Montgommery DE LSU, Dion Jordan OLB/DE Oregon, Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M, Bjorn Werner DE/OLB Florida State, Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan, Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma.

Updated Projection: Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan

While the Lions could use another pass rusher to replace Cliff Avril they can find a lot of good pass rushers in the second round. However there is not that kind of depth at OT and Eric Fisher is nearly as good as Luke Joeckel.

6. Cleveland Browns

Previous Projection: Geno Smith QB West Virgina

Players Considered: Geno Smith QB West Virgina, Dee Milliner CB Alabama, Chance Warmack OG Alabama, Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma, Jarvis Jones DE/OLB Georgia, Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M.

Updated Projection: Jarvis Jones OLB/DE Georgia

While Geno looked like a good pick, the Browns seem to be settled into having either Brandon Weeden or Jason Campbell as their starter. Although Mike Lombardi seems to really want Ryan Mallet. Either way I think the best pick for the Browns at this point is to continue to add to their defense by brining in another good edge rusher to pair with Paul Kruger. Jarvis Jones should be taken higher but because of a few issues he should be available to the Browns who get a steal here.

7. Arizona Cardinals

Previous Projection: Matt Barkley QB USC

Players Considered: Geno Smith QB West Virgina, Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU, Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M, Bjorn Werner DE/OLB Florida State, Dion Jordan OLB/DE Oregon.

Updated Projection: Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU

With the reports coming out that Carson Palmer will soon become an Arizona Cardinal, there is no need for them to take a QB now.The team is going to continue running a 34 defense under Todd Bowles, and therefore they need a great pass rusher. Comes down to Barkevious Mingo or Dion Jordan, and I think Mingo is the better pass rusher.

8. Buffalo Bills

Previous Projection: Bjorn Werner DE/OLB Florida State

Players Considered: Geno Smith QB West Virgina, Bjorn Wener DE/OLB Florida State, Sam Montgomery DE LSU, Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M.

Updated Projection: Geno Smith QB West Virgina

After the realease of Ryan Fitzpatrick I say the Bills take Geno here and get their QB of the future. Ryan Nassib is nice and all but he isn't an NFL starter and I think Doug Marrone knows that. Geno makes them a contender for the playoffs next season.

9. New York Jets

Previous Projection: Chance Warmack OG Alabama

Players Considered: Chance Warmack OG Alabama, Jonathan Cooper OG UNC, Cordarrele Patterson WR Tennessee, Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon

Updated Projection: Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon

The Jets take the best and most versatile Linebacker in this draft right here. Dion Jordan gives them a player who can rush the passer, defend the run, cover slot receivers, and cover tight ends. Dion reminds me of Von Miller with more athletic ability, and make the Jets defense formidable, but they still need a QB.

10. Tennessee Titans

Previous Projection: Jonathan Cooper OG UNC

Updated Projection: Jonathan Cooper OG UNC
 

11. San Diego Chargers

Previous Projection: Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan

Players Considered: Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma, John Jenkins NG/DT Georgia, Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M, Bjorn Werner DE/OLB Florida State

Updated Projection: Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M

Considered by most to be the best DE in the class, Damontre Moore gives them much needed depth across the D-Line and helps a defense that couldn't stop a cold. They could also reach for Lane Johnson because of their porous offensive line.

12. Miami Dolphins

Previous Projection: Dee Milliner CB Alabama

Players Considered: Dee Milliner CB Alabama, Eddie Lacy RB Alabama, Cordarelle Patterson WR Tennessee, Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma

Updated Projection: Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma

This one was tough, I honestly expect the Dolphins to go with Cordarelle Patterson, but I am very skeptical of him and as such am going with who I think they should draft. Lane Johnson is a quality OT and will help soften the blow of losing Jake Long.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Previous Projection: Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M
Players Considered: Sam Montgomery DE LSU, Dee Milliner CB Alabama, Bjorn Werner DE Florida State.

Updated Projection: Dee Milliner CB Alabama

While Tampa could go in a million directions, their pursuit of Darrelle revisRevis tells me one thing. They know that their secondary is soft. While I could see them waiting and taking a guy like Desmond Trufant in the 2nd or 3rd round draft and take a pass rusher in the first round.

14. Carolina Panther

Previous Projection: John Jenkins NG/DT Georgia

Players Considered: John Jenkins NG/DT Georgia, Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri, Cordarelle Patterson WR Tennesee

Updated Projection: Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri

While I originally went with John Jenkins here, I think Sheldon Richardson is a much better fit in the Panthers 43 defense. Sheldon has shown to be a very good pass rusher and will help the Panthers against the Saint and Falcons prolific passing attacks.

15. New Orleans Saints

Previous Projection: Dion Jordan OLB/DE Oregon

Players Considered: Bjorn Werner DE/OLB Florida State, John Jenkins NG/DT Georgia

Updated Projection: John Jenkins NG/DT Georgia

With the signing of Victor Butler I think the Saints are set at OLB. Unless a guy like Dion Jordan or KeKe Mingo falls to them, the Saints should look to there next biggest need on defense, Nose Guard. John Jenkins is the most complete NG I've seen come into the draft since Vince Wilfork, the man is huge and strong enough to stuff the run but agile and quick enough to rush the passer. If the Saints defense has Jenkins at NG, the Saints defense will be a lot scarier than it was last year.

previous mock draft: http://smithsnnfblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/mock-draft-2013-part-1-picks-1-11.html

Mock Draft Par Deux Picks 16-32

The second half of NNF's first mock draft. Just a note I don't honestly expect the 49ers to take Ryan Swope, but since I have no idea who they will draft I went with who I think they should draft.

Pick Number 16. St. Louis Rams

Players considered: Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St., Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M.

Player projected: Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee.

If the Rams go for a need here then they take Patterson. If they go best available they would go with Sam Montgomery but because of a need at receiver and a fairly strong defense I think they take Patterson and give Bradford a target to throw to.

Pick Number 17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU.

Player projected: Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU.

James Harrison is getting older and they need a replacement for him. Sam fits that need perfectly as a guy who should have gone much earlier. The Steelers O-Line need can be addressed in a later round.

Pick Number 18. Dallas Cowboys

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU, Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St., Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina, Jonathan Hankins DT Ohio State, Sheldon Richardson DT Mizzou.

Player projected: Sheldon Richardson DT Mizzou.

Monte Kiffin needs a speedy DT to add to his defense, while I could see them drafting a guy like Margus Hunt or Ezekiel Ansah to play DT in a Tampa 2 I think Sheldon is a better fit. He has struggled against the run but he is very quick and agile for his size and fits the scheme well.

Pick Number 19. New York Giants

Players considered: DJ Fluker OT Alabama, Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Margus Hunt DE SMU.

Player projected: Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU.

The Giants love their DEs and I think Ziggy is a good situational pass rusher who can replace Osi on 3rd downs. He can also slide inside and play DT as Ziggy was a NG most of his college career. I think Ansah also eventually replaces Justin Tuck as a 3 down DE.

Pick Number 20. Chicago Bears

Players considered: Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma, DJ Fluker OT Alabama.

Player Projected: Lane Johnson.

It is simple in my mind, if the Bears sign a good LT such as Jermon Bushrod they go with Fluker, otherwise they draft Lane Johnson. If they draft anything except O-Line here Jay Cutler needs to just demand a trade before he gets killed.

Pick Number 21. Cincinnati Bengals

Players considered: Alec Ogeltree ILB Georgia.

Projected player: Alec Ogeltree ILB Georgia.

I put this up there with the Bengals signing Vontaze Burfict last year. A great LB with off the field issues. Ogeltree combined with Burfict and Rey Maualuga make for a dangerous linebacking core.

Pick Number 22. St. Louis Rams (Via Redskins)

Players considered: Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M, Tavon Austin WR West Virgina, DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson.

Player projected: DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson.

With this second pick the Rams suddenly have two starting receivers that could potentially pair with Danny Amendola and make a pretty solid receiving corps. They could also take a LB such as Manti Te'o or Kevin Minter and wait and take someone like Ryan Swope or Denard Robinson in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Pick Number 23. Minnesota Vikings

Players considered: Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St.

Player projected: Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St.

The Vikings desperately need help in the secondary and Xavier is a guy who should go much higher than this, if he is available they take him.

Pick Number 24. Indianapolis Colts

Players considered: Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame, Kevin Minter ILB LSU, Margus Hunt DE SMU.

Player projected: Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame.

The Colts need help on defense against both the pass and run, Manti makes an instant impact as a instinctive ILB who can cover as well as stuff the run. I could see Margus Hunt coming off the board here as well because of the Colts having envy towards the Texans and JJ Watt.

Pick Number 25. Seattle Seahawks

Players considered: Jonathan Hankins DT Ohio State, Tavon Austin WR West Virgina, Margus Hunt DE SMU, Datone Jones DE/OLB UCLA.

Player projected: Datone Jones DE/OLB UCLA.

Pete Carroll has to be concerned after watching his pass rush disappear once Chris Clemons went down in the playoffs. Datone Jones is a player of similar build to Clemons who can play both DE and OLB making him a near perfect fit for the Seahawks defense (a perfect fit would have been Ziggy Ansah).

Pick Number 26. Green Bay Packers

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU, Eric Reid FS LSU, Kevin Minter ILB LSU.

Player projected: Kevin Minter ILB LSU.

A good fit as Minter is an athletic and instinctive ILB who excels against the run. The combination of Minter and BJ Raji should help plug up the middle against the run.

Pick Number 27. Houston Texans

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU.

Player projected: Margus Hunt DE SMU.

And the rich get richer....If they pull this off the Texans will have the scariest pair of interior pash rushers in the NFL. Pairing JJ Watt and Margus Hunt seems a bit unfair, which is exactly why I hope the Texans manage to get Hunt.

Pick Number 28. Denver Broncos

Players considered: Eddie Lacy RB Alabama, Eric Reid FS LSU.

Player projected: Eric Reid FS LSU.

This is precisely who the Broncos needed in the AFC Championship to prevent the ridiculous score that sent the Ravens to the Super Bowl. Eric Reid is the best FS or SS in this class in my opinion and makes the Broncos defense even scarier.

Pick Number 29. New England Patriots

Players considered: Tavon Austin WR West Virgina.

Player projected: Tavon Austin WR West Virgina.

This Austin kid is like Wes Welker but with the speed of Brandon Lloyd. If he falls to the Pats they have to take him to give Brady someone who doesn't play TE to throw too.

Pick Number 30. Atlanta Falcons

Players considered: Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame.

Player projected: Tyler Eifer TE Notre Dame.

This one just makes since, whether Gonzales comes back or not the Falcons need a replacement for him and this kid from Notre Dame is the best TE in this draft.

Pick Number 31. San Francisco 49ers

Players considered: Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M.

Players projected: Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M.

Honestly the 49ers don't have a real need. I think they should get a good no.1 target for Kaepernick and, Swope despite being a small reach, is my top rated WR in this draft and I think could be the best white guy to play receiver in the NFL, beating out current no.1 white guy Jordy Nelson. The 49ers really could take anybody here so I won't be surprised by whoever they take.

Pick Number 32. Baltimore Ravens

Players considered: Arthur Brown ILB Kansas St.

Player projected: Arthur Brown ILB Kansas St.

The Baltimore Ravens make NFL history by setting the record for most player named Arthur on an NFL roster. All jokes aside this kid is the considered by some to be better than Te'o, Minter, and Ogeltree and he will be a good step in the right direction of replacing Ray Lewis.

Mock Draft 2013 Part 1. Picks 1-15

NNF's first Mock Draft, taking on the 2013 NFL draft.

Pick number 1. Kansas City Chiefs

Players considered: Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M, Geno Smith QB West Virgina.

Player projected: Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M.

After reports that the Chiefs are the leaders in the Alex Smith sweepstakes along with reports saying Andy Reid was impressed with Joeckel I figure this makes the most sense. The apparent imminent departure of LT Brandon Albert also adds to the likelihood of this pick.

Pick Number 2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Players considered: Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Jarvis Jones OLB/DE Georgia.

Player projected: Jarvis Jones OLB/DE Georgia

This is a perfect fit with Gus Bradley coming in from Seattle, he is going to want a guy who can play the Leo or Elephant position, a stand up hybrid 34 OLB/43 DE. Jarvis Jones is the perfect fit here, although Ziggy would be a great fit as well he is less polished and therefore I think he falls, maybe even to the Seahawks at 25.

Pick Number 3. Oakland Raiders

Players considered: Alec Ogeltree ILB Georgia, Shariff Floyd DT Florida, Star Lotulelei DT Utah.

Player projected: Shariff Floyd DT Florida.

Basically, I see this as Shariff if Star doesn't check out because of his heart condition. If he does check out then Star is the pick. Either one will be a good replacement for Richard Seymour and both fills a need and qualifies at the best available player.

Pick Number 4. Philadelphia Eagles

Players considered: Star Louteleli DT Utah, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon, Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan, Jonathan Cooper OG/C North Carolina, Chance Warmack OG Alabama.

Player projected: Star Louteleli DT Utah

There are a lot of directions the Eagles could go here, I personally think they need more help on O-Line than on D-Line however they could get a quality player, such as Oregon OT/OG Kyle Long, in the 2nd or 3rd round. With the release of Cullen Jenkins they need a replacement for him and I think Star fits perfectly. If Star doesn't check out then I expect they'd flip a few coins and take either Ansah, Dion, or Montgomery.

Pick Number 5. Detroit Lions

Players considered: Bjoern Werner DE Florida State, Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M, Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon.

Player projected: Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU

With Vanden Bosch and possibly Cliff Avril leaving the Lions need a pass rusher here and KeKe is the one most suited for the Lions Wide-9 scheme. Dion Jordan makes sense too, but I think he is more of a 34 OLB as he is more polished in coverage and against the run than against the pass. KeKe is a freakish speedy athlete at DE who will be a good fit in Detroit.

Pick Number 6. Cleveland Browns

Players considered: Cordarrele Patterson WR Tennessee, Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M, Geno Smith QB West Virgina, Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan.

Player projected: Geno Smith QB West Virgina.

I'm working off of the assumption that the Chiefs get Alex Smith and Joe Flacco remains a Raven. Under that assumption the Browns get their franchise QB here. If either of those guys come to Cleveland then the pick here should be Swope (who I have rated as the most complete receiver in this class) but will probably be Patterson.

Pick Number 7. Arizona Cardinals

Players considered: Matt Barkley QB USC

Player projected: Matt Barkley QB USC

According to reports the Cardinals want Barkley, I think he falls to them and the Cardinals get the next Mark Sanchez. I'd take JaMarcus Russell over Matt Barkley. I do not think Barkley will be very good, however if anyone can transform this guy into a good QB it would be Arians.

Pick Number 8. Buffalo Bills

Players considered: Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M, Bjoern Werner DE Florida State, Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU.

Player projected: Bjoern Werner DE Florida State

More than likely either Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Nassib, or Chase Daniel will be Buffalo's QB next season, for that reason I say they take a DE to pair with Mario Williams. Bjoern Werner is the best available DE here with many analysts having him listed as the no.1 DE on the board.

Pick Number 9. New York Jets

Players considered: Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Jonathan Cooper OG/C North Carolina, Chance Warmack OG Alabama.

Player projected: Chance Warmack OG Alabama

The Jets need O-Line help in particular at guard, Chance Warmack is the best fit because he played in a similar power running scheme in Bama. I personally like Coop from NCU better, but Warmack is a better scheme fit.

Pick Number 10. Tennessee Titans

Players considered: Jonathan Cooper OG/C North Carolina, Eric Fisher Central Michigan.

Player projected: Jonathan Cooper OG/C

The Titans need O-Line help bad if they want to get CJ2K back on track. They have also talked about adding in Zone Read concepts, Zone Blocking fits Coops strengths very well and he will make an excellent addition to the Titans O-Line.

Pick Number 11. San Diego Chargers

Players considered: Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan, Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma.

Player Projected: Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan.

Fish is a steal at 11 as I personally think he is as good as Luke Joeckel. He is the first step in remaking this team into a good team by adding someone who can keep Phillip Rivers upright. I'm not sold on Phillip Rivers as a franchise QB but this kid will certainly help him.

Pick Number 12. Miami Dolphins

Players considered: Tavon Austin WR West Virgina, Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M, Cordarrele Patterson WR Tennessee, Dee Milliner CB Alabama, Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St, Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma.

Player Projected: Dee Milliner CB Alabama.

And the constant bad moves continue, don't get me wrong Dee is a good corner but corner shouldn't be a need for them. If Ireland would let the moths out of his wallet and pay Sean Smith he wouldn't need a new corner, and if he had kept Brandon Marshall last year they might have a shot at the AFC East this year. Or if he'd pay Reggie Bush or Jake Long...or anyone.

Pick Number 13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Players considered: Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St., Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M.

Player projected: Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M.

The Buccaneers could go a million different directions here. I like the idea of a Corner here but I think they go after a guy like Sean Smith or Tracy Porter in free agency. This frees them up to draft a pass rusher to help against the passing attacks in the NFC South.

Pick Number 14. Carolina Panthers

Players considered: Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Cordarele Patterson WR Tennesse, Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M, John Jenkins DT/NG Georgia.

Player projected: John Jenkins DT/NG Georgia.

The panthers need a good DT on their defense and despite his immense size I think Jenkins is a 43 DT because of his ability to put pressure on the QB and his ability to shed a double team and stuff the run. The Panthers also need a receiver but I think Ryan Swope, a guy who I feel is the best receiver in this class, will be available in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Pick Number 15. New Orleans Saints

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon, Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame, Kevin Minter ILB LSU.

Player Projected: Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon.

The Saints need help on defense, period. They could take Margus Hunt who I think is the next JJ Watt, or they could take a LB like Manti Te'o who has played in the 34 before. I think all of the Saints fans are going to be screaming for Sam Montgomery just like they did with Glenn Dorsey back when they took Sedrick Ellis. This time they go with Oregon DE/OLB Dion Jordan, who is just a giant physical freak. This gives the Saints the elite pass rushing OLB they need for Rob Ryan's 34 defense.

Part 2 can be found here: http://smithsnnfblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/mock-draft-par-deux-picks-16-32.html

2013 Free Agency: Running Backs and Fullbacks

My second free agency article, here we get into a position that has more meat on it than the Quarterbacks. I will be going over the Running Backs. There are many more actual free agent Running Backs than there are free agent Quarterbacks.

Position: RB/FB

Rating: B+

Notable Free Agent RBs: Steven Jackson(STL), Reggie Bush(MIA), Ahmad Bradshaw(NYG), Shonn Greene(NYJ), Danny Woodhead(NE), Chris Ivory(NO), LaRod Stevens Howling(ARI), Darius Reynaud(TEN).

Potential Cutable/Tradable RBs: Michael Turner(ATL), DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewar(CAR), Maurice Jones-Drew(JAX), Darren McFadden(OAK), Pierre Thomas(NO)

Notable Free Agent FB's: James Casey(HOU), Mike Cox(ATL)

The biggest names on the free agent market are guys like Reggie Bush, Steven Jackson, and Ahmad Bradshaw with the 2nd tier being Chris Ivory and Danny Woodhead.

The best fit for Reggie Bush would be in Green Bay, finally giving the Packers an every down back who can be an absolute beast in the passing game. Reggie would also be a good fit with the Eagles as another versatile running back, and would be a great fit if Chip uses some of his two back option schemes from Oregon that he ran with LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner or DeAnthony Smith and Kenjon Barner. A team who could surprise some teams by picking up Reggie Bush would be the Indianapolis Colts, he would be a great fit in Indy if they continue to run an offense similar to the one ran by Bruce Arians last year.

Ahmad Bradshaw was really a shock to me, I know he's dealt with injuries but he is a really good running back. I like Ahmad either going to the Jets as a compliment or replacement to Shonn Greene. Ahmad could also be brought back by the Giants according to reports and really, I think his best bet is to stay in New York either with the Giants or Jets.

Steven Jackson is still a beast even at this point in his career and would be a great fit in Green Bay for the same reasons I gave for Reggie. Steven is still massive every down back who can run up the middle as well as catch out of the backfield. Steven is also one of the best blocking running backs in the NFL. I'd love to see him in a place where has a chance at winning a ring like Green Bay. He could also be a great fit as a Steeler bringing the power back back to Pittsburgh, or with the Bengals to work in a timeshare with the Law Offices of Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis.

As far as Chris Ivory goes, Ivory would be best served by staying with the Saints because Sean Payton really likes using him and Ivory could be in for a promotion with Pierre Thomas possibly becoming expendable enough to be traded or released. Payton really likes Ivory and I think he will use him much more than he was used this year, if he did leave though, he could be a great fit in the zone running schemes used by Washington, Houston, San Francisco, Oakland, and Seattle.

Danny Woodhead would be a great fit as a replacement for Reggie Bush in Miami but I would not be shocked at all if Rex Ryan decided to bring back one of his favorite players and bring Danny back to the Jets. Woodhead would also be a good fit as a 3rd down back in Washington or Houston as he has good receiving ability and seems to have good enough vision to read off of the Zone Blocking scheme.

As far as guys being traded or cut, Michael Turner is boring, he is a big slow back who is not very good at this point. He could be a good short yardage backup running back in a place like San Francisco, Seattle,Tennessee, Giants, or possibly the Jets but I don't expect him to be a starter again.

I honestly don't expect MoJo Drew or Run DMC to be traded, although I think Marcel Reece is a better running back for the Raiders than McFadden. Neither of these guys are getting traded, end of story.

Pierre Thomas however could be cut by the Saints to make room for Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram. I figure either the P.T. Cruiser or Chris Ivory will not be a Saints next year, and I'm hoping if one has to go it's Pierre. Pierre Thomas would be a good fit just about anywhere in the NFL as a starter or at the very least a 3rd down back. His skill set makes him very versatile and able to fit just about anywhere.

Of the FBs the only ones worth noting are James Casey and Mike Cox. James Casey is a versatile FB/H-Back/TE who can make an immediate impact as both a blocker and a receiver. He would be a good fit for any of the Zone Blocking teams like Washington and Houston as well as any of the Spread teams. Mike Cox is more of a throwback straight up in line blocker, he would be a good fit for power running teams like the Jaguars, Jets, Cardinals, or Carolina.

Next time I will be covering receivers, with such names as Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, and Percy Harvin out there it should be an interesting group.

Rob Ryan to be Named Saints Defensive Coordinator

  According to ESPN's Adam Schefter league sources have said that the New Orleans Saints are going to hire former Cowboys Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan to the same position. This a huge hiring in my mind and puts the Saints in position to make a run next year. As I've said before the Saints have the personnel to run Rob Ryan's preferred 1-gapping 34 defense (breakdown of the 1-Gap 34 defense can be found here  http://chalkdustnnf.blogspot.com/2013/01/34-defense.html) and who knows, maybe the switch to the 34 and Rob Ryan joining the Saint could be enough to lure Dallas' free agent linebacker Anthony Spencer to the Big Easy.
 
  I'm excited about this hiring and am even more pumped up for next season than I was before. If the Saints can cut out the fat (here's looking to you Sedrick Ellis) and let the lean talent shine (Martez Wilson fits here) the Saints could be en route to the NFC Championship game for a climatic battle between the Saints and 49ers. Now I'm definitely getting ahead of myself here, but if the Saints could have a defense in the top 15 and keep there offense at the level it's been the last two years the Saints could easily cut through the NFC South. Just remember, no team has ever repeated as NFC South champions and the Saints will have a defense not seen very often in the NFC (Only 5 teams in the NFC run the 34 including the Saints with others being the 49ers, Cardinals, Redskins, and Packers.)

Again, right now these are only reports, nothing official, but Schefter generally knows what he's talking about. If this hiring does turn out to be true the Saints will be the only team in the NFC South to run the 34 defense, and behind Rob Ryan they will show why the 34 defense is becoming the best defensive alignment in football.

  Update:2/8/13 As of today Georgia defensive Coordinator Todd Grantham has taken his name out of consideration for the Saints DC Vacancy. Rob Ryan has also according to sources said he believes he has the job. Sean Payton also said that they are having trouble getting permission to interview assistant coaches. All of the signs are pointing to Rob Ryan being the Saints next Defensive Coordinator.

QB's To Watch in Free Agency 2013

  The next event on the slate on the NFL calendar is free agency. There are a few big names out there that could make an overall dull free agent class interesting. I'll break them down position by position and give the biggest free agents and where I think they'll go and where they'd be a good fit.

Position: QB

Rating: C-

Potential Cuts/Trades: Alex Smith(SF) Tim Tebow(NYJ) Michael Vick(PHI) Matt Flynn(SEA).

Notable Free Agents: Jason Campbell(CHI) Chase Daniel(NO)

  The crop of Quarterbacks is so weak that a guy like Chase Daniel can be considered notable, however Jason Campbell would be notable even if this were stronger class. Jason Campbell needs to get another shot somewhere, this guy is too good to be a clipboard holder on the sideline. JC would be a good fit for Bruce Arians' offense as he has the arm talent and touch needed to run Arian's deep bomb offense. He could also be a good fit in Kansas City with Andy Reid and his aggressive west coast variant.

  As far as Chase Daniel he has the ability to be decent starting Quarterback but would be best served by remaining as a backup in New Orleans. Chase's best fit outside of continuing as Drew Brees' backup would be to go to Buffalo with former Saints Offensive Coordinator Doug Marrone. More than likely Chase will be a backup wherever he goes but I think he could be a 9-10 win starting Quarterback if given a shot with decent talent.

  The guys who could be cut or traded are much more interesting, with the group being headlined by Alex Smith. Alex would be a good fit for any team with a strong running game and an at least serviceable defense. Enter Cleveland, the browns have Trent Richardson to lead their run game along with a few decent weapons such as Josh Gordon and Greg Little in the pass game. On defense they have a very opportunistic secondary and an overall good defense. The only other fit I see would be in KC because of Jamaal Charles and a decent defense.

  The other interesting ones are two left-handed athletic Quarterbacks, Tim Tebow and Mike Vick. Tebow's best fit would be in Philadelphia if Chip brought some of his Oregon option plays with him. If Chip is going to run a more boring offense then Tim could be a fit in Arizona as his game is similar to Big Ben. He has a cannon arm with good touch on his deep passes along with the ability to extend the play making him a good fit in Arians deep bomb heavy offense. I'll suggest Tim could also be on his way to Washington D.C. to be RGIII's backup. Washington makes the most sense as he would not bring much drama as he would have no chance of starting but would allow them to run the same offense they normally do if Griffin were to go down. No matter where Tim goes they need to add some option plays into the playbook just to take advantage of Tim's great running ability.

  Vick's best fit would be in the middle of a comfy chair watching tv while he still has some higher brain functions left. But if Vick insists on continuing to play then he could reunite with Andy in KC or could be a good fit for the Jets. Behind the Jet's O-Line Vick might be able to be a good enough Quarterback to win games for Gang Green. Honestly though, I think Vick is one hit away from being retired.

  Matt Flynn would be a good fit with the Jets as a game manager, or possibly in Buffalo running their spread offense. Flynn could also come home as a replacement for Chase Daniel in New Orleans. In all likeliness, Flynn stays put in Seattle unless he demands to be released.
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 I will be going over Running Backs in the next article.

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Players To Watch 2013 Draft Part 1

  As another NFL season comes to an end we all wait the unbearable last few days before we find out who the Super Bowl champion will be..........if we live in Baltimore or San Francisco. For the rest of us the biggest thing coming for our team is free agency, except this year free agency looks to be pretty pathetic and boring. That leaves the draft as the next thing most casual fans will be looking forward to (I personally can't wait for the combine but to each his own.) Here is a list of players I think will be truly intriguing including a few high rated prospects and a few potential mid to late round prospects.


 Dion Jordan
 Position:DE/OLB
 College:University of Oregon
 Conference: Pac 12
 Height: 6'7''
 Weight: 240 lbs.
 NFL.com Player Comparison: Julian Peterson
 NNF Player Comparison: DeMarcus Ware/ Patrick Willis hybrid
 Best Fit: New Orleans Saints


    Dion is a freak of nature, he has a massive frame that desperately cries for him to add some weight to it. His body looks like it could support another 30 lbs without him losing any of his tremendous speed. Which speaking of speed, he runs around a 4.5-4.6 40 yard dash which makes him faster than both Aldon Smith and Rob Gronkowski. He does rely on his speed a little too much and neglects his technique at times. His speed does make it impossible for you to leave him unblocked however, you can't simply run away from his because he can and will run you down. He did that numerous times to teams running the Zone Read and trying to read him. They'd hand it off away from him and he'd run them down. Or they'd run a speed option to his side and he'd get off the block and chase down the QB pivot, and get to the pitch man before he could gain more than a yard or two.


   Dion was also used by the Ducks in coverage against Tight Ends and Slot Receivers and he was able to match them stride for stride as well as being taller than them most of the time. As I've said before he could be the anti Gronk/Graham/Hernandez/ as he is as fast or faster than all of them and bigger than all of them. He should have no problem in coverage shutting down most Tight Ends in the NFL and could cover some faster slot receiver such as Wes Welker or Lance Moore because of his size. Dion does need to bulk up a little and needs to work on his technique, but a guy who is this big, this fast, and who doesn't shy away from contact will absolutely be a playmaker in the NFL. The landing spot that makes the most sense to me is the Saints at 15 but if he fell past 15 he could also go to the Steelers at 17 as James Harrison is getting up there.


 Barkevious Mingo
 Position:DE/OLB
 College:Louisiana State University
 Conference: SEC
 Height: 6'5''
 Weight: 240 lbs.
 NFL.com Player Comparison: DeMarcus Ware
 NNF Player Comparison: Aldon Smith
 Best Fit: Detroit Lions/ Miami Dolphins


    KeKe really looks to me more like an oversized safety than a defensive lineman, especially wearing that number 49 LSU jersey. Regardless this man is another freak of nature, although not as versatile as Dion he will probably go earlier in the draft than Dion. He will be drafted higher for one main reason, he played at LSU. KeKe has amazing potential as a pass rusher in either a 34 or a 43, I like him as a fit with the Lions as a wide 9 speed rusher or possibly in Philadelphia if they don't take an offensive lineman. Buffalo could also be interested in KeKe if they wait to take a QB until the 2nd or 3rd round.


   Mingo could be this years rookie sensation on defense much like Aldon Smith and JJ Watt were a year ago. If he somehow fell past the top 10 then Tampa Bay, Carolina, or Miami could pick him. If he went to Miami they could be a threat in the AFC East next season with Cameron Wake and Mingo rushing from opposite edges. However in all honesty I don't see him falling past the Lions at 5.


 Brian Schwenke
 Position:C/G
 College:University of California Berkeley
 Conference: Pac 12
 Height: 6'4''
 Weight: 300 lbs.
 NNF Player Comparison: Will Montgommery/ Chris Myers
 Best Fit: Washington Redskins/ Houston Texans/ New Orleans Saints


    Schwenke is a stereotypical Zone Blocking interior lineman like the ones used by Mike Shannahan in Washington or Gary Kubiak in Houston. He has shown versatility in starting at both Guard spots over the course of his first three years of college and playing the Center position in his Senior year. He showed good learning ability and smarts in learning all of the line calls quickly despite never having played center before. Looks to help teammates out when not covered and has shown elite twitch and burst when coming off the ball. Schwenke has shown great agility and understands how to use his low center of gravity and leverage to block larger opponents. At the Senior Bowl he was able to routinely beat mountain of a man John Jenkins from Georgia both in practices and in the game and has shown a consistent ability to beat larger men. He would be a great scheme fit in either Washington or Houston as well as on some of the spread teams such as the Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Panthers, and 49ers. He has all of the skills needed to be an excellent Zone Blocker and also to excel as a Pass Blocker, as the concepts are very similar. He should fall to the 3rd or 4th round simply because he is an interior lineman and they generally do not go early on, much like Tight Ends.


 EJ Manuel
 Position:QB
 College: Florida State University
 Conference: ACC
 Height: 6'5''
 Weight: 238 lbs.
 NFL.com Player Comparison: Blaine Gabbert
 NNF Player Comparison: Colin Kaepernick or a more mobile Ben Roethlisberger
 Best Fit: Arizona Cardinals/ Buffalo Bills


    EJ Manuel will be the best Quarterback to come out of this draft class, mark my words. And Mike Mayock of NFL Network comparing this kid to Blaine Gabbert is insulting, he's bigger, faster, stronger, and smarter than Gabbert. EJ reminds of Colin Kaepernick a lot, he has a cannon for an arm, is a natural runner, and is pretty accurate on his throws. The only other Quarterbacks in this draft who intrigue me are Geno Smith and Colin Klein. Manuel should be able to come in and make an impact immediately as a rookie if he went to Arizona or Buffalo and would be a good fit for both of those teams' systems.


   The Bills new coach Doug Marrone has said he will run a hybrid of the K-Gun offense and Sean Payton's spread offense (Marrone was Payton's OC in New Orleans before being hired as the HC of Syracuse). EJ Manuel would fit such an offense very well and would probably be given a few weeks to prepare as he would have to wait for Ryan Fitzpatrick to self-destruct. On the off chance Fitz didn't self destruct the Bills would still have a very talented Quarterback to groom as their future star. Also with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson on the roster he wouldn't have to carry the team and could be in a similar position as his former teammate Christian Ponder is in, in Minnesota with Adrian Peterson.


   The Cardinals will be running a spread em' out, air it out, deep throwing offense under Bruce Arians that would fit Manuel's strengths very well. The Cardinals also have the most underrated receiver in football in Larry Fitzgerald who is just waiting for someone with EJ's talent to throw the ball to him. The only other available Quarterbacks who really fit Arian's scheme at all are Tim Tebow and JaMarcus Russell, as they are both massive Quarterbacks with cannon's in the play of a right arm. EJ will probably be a late 3rd or early to mid 4th round pick and whoever picks him up will have a steal.


 Robert Alford
 Position:CB
 College:Southeastern Louisiana University
 Conference: Southland Conference (FCS)
 Height: 6'0''
 Weight: 185 lbs.
 NFL.com Player Comparison: William Middleton
 NNF Player Comparison: Morris Claiborne
 Best Fit: Houston Texans/ New Orleans Saints


    This kid has come busting onto the scene ever since the Senior Bowl in which he was covering the best receivers from the SEC and other conferences and shutting them down in practice. No receiver was able to get un-blanketed against Alford in the actual game or in practice. He also showed off his speed and return ability on the opening kickoff when he returned it almost all the way to the endzone. Robert is ridiculously fast running a 4.3-4.4 40 yard dash, he also has the technique and strength to play press coverage very effectively. When all is said and done Alford should go off the board in the 2nd or 3rd round and I could see him being a good fit with the Saints as they could use a better option at Cornerback than Patrick Robinson, plus Mickey Loomis likes his small school guys. He would also be a good fit with the Texans as they could use help at Corner and could be a solid pickup by a team like the Patriots or Bengals who have solid Cornerbacks but not any that are particularly great.

Rob Ryan With The Saints

  There was a report coming out last week that the Rams had hired Rob Ryan as their new Defensive Coordinator. Now Kevin Demoff, the team president has told the Rams website that they are not hiring Rob Ryan as their Defensive Coordinator. This opens up my original theory that the Saints could hire Rob Ryan as their Defensive Coordinator. The Saints have said that former Chiefs Head Coach Romeo Crennel was at the top of their wish list, however, they said that after Ryan was "hired" as the Rams DC.
 

  Looking at the possible D-Coordinators I feel like Rob Ryan and his mad scientist defense would be perfect for the Saints. Former Browns Head Coach Eric Mangini has also been discussed as being a candidate and is closer to Rob Ryan in his innovative and outside the box thinking. Much like Mangini, Rob has taken some seriously bad defenses and made them competive because of scheme alone. Romeo Crennel scares me a bit as a DC because he has historically ran the Patriots 2-Gap 34 defense (breakdown can be found here http://chalkdustnnf.blogspot.com/2013/01/34-defense.html) ,which the Saints do not have the personnel to run. His defense has worked well in other places such as Kansas City and New England however they had much better personnel. The 2-Gap 34 has also become outclasses by the faster 1-Gap 34 defense run by the Texans (can also be found here http://chalkdustnnf.blogspot.com/2013/01/34-defense.html).
 

  According to Adam Schefter the Saints were looking into possibly bringing in both Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini. I wouldn't have a problem with Co-Defensive Coordinators but I'd bring in Mangini and Rob Ryan as they have worked together many times before and had a really good defense going in Cleveland despite poor talent. Now I doubt that Mangini would come in as a co-defensive coordinator or even as a full time defensive coordinator, but it would be a nice idea.
 

  Looking at Dallas' defensive personnel the Saints have similar personnel. The Cowboys starting Nose Guard Jay Ratliff is 6'4'' and 303 lbs. Both Sedrick Ellis(6'1'' 307 lbs.) and Broderick Bunkley(6'2'' 308lbs.) are of similar size and have both played as Nose Guards before. Ellis played as a Nose Guard in Pete Carroll's hybrid "Leo" defense at USC. With Bunkley also playing as a Nose Guard in Denver before coming to New Orleans last season.
 

  Dallas' starting Defensive Tackles were Marcus Spears(6'4'' 315lbs.) and Jason Hatcher(6'6'' 305 lbs.) The Saints have Akiem Hicks (6'5'' 324lbs.) who could anchor the strong side and then play a smaller, quicker, man on the opposite side with either Cameron Jordan(6'4'' 287lbs.) or Tyrunn Walker(6'3'' 294lbs.) Rob would have to alter his scheme a little bit to fit some of the faster personnel the Saints have such as Cameron Jordan.
 

  The Cowboys Starting Outside Linebackers are Anthony Spencer (6'3'' 250 lbs.) and DeMarcus Ware (6'4'' 254 lbs.) They are both great pass rushers and the Saints have guys with the kind of potential to be like these two. Such as  Martez Wilson (6'4'' 254 lbs.), Junior Gallete (6'2'' 258 lbs.), and Braylon Broughton (6'6'' 272 lbs.) All of these guys have experience playing standing up and have been good pass rushers. These three are all a bit raw but full of potential as they have the size to take on an offensive tackle, as well as the speed (Gallete 4.67 40 time/Wilson 4.49/Broughton 4.55) to be amazing pass rushers.
 

  Their is one more piece that the Saints could add through the draft, and that is the ridiculously fast and versatile Oregon outside linebacker Dion Jordan. This kid is a freak of nature, standing at 6'7'' and weighing in at 241 lbs. Dion Jordan is one of the only players I have seen who can both excel as a pass rusher and in coverage. Oregon would line this kid up against slot receiver and he would cover them effectively. Dion could potentially be the Bane of Gronkowski's existence as he is faster (Dion ran a 4.59 Gronk ran a 4.68) and taller than Gronk (Dion is 6'7'' Gronk is 6'6'')


All in all I see Rob being a perfect fit for the Saints defense and I think Mickey Loomis should and will draft Dion Jordan with 15th pick in the draft.