Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Mock Draft Par Deux Picks 16-32

The second half of NNF's first mock draft. Just a note I don't honestly expect the 49ers to take Ryan Swope, but since I have no idea who they will draft I went with who I think they should draft.

Pick Number 16. St. Louis Rams

Players considered: Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St., Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M.

Player projected: Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee.

If the Rams go for a need here then they take Patterson. If they go best available they would go with Sam Montgomery but because of a need at receiver and a fairly strong defense I think they take Patterson and give Bradford a target to throw to.

Pick Number 17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU.

Player projected: Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU.

James Harrison is getting older and they need a replacement for him. Sam fits that need perfectly as a guy who should have gone much earlier. The Steelers O-Line need can be addressed in a later round.

Pick Number 18. Dallas Cowboys

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU, Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St., Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina, Jonathan Hankins DT Ohio State, Sheldon Richardson DT Mizzou.

Player projected: Sheldon Richardson DT Mizzou.

Monte Kiffin needs a speedy DT to add to his defense, while I could see them drafting a guy like Margus Hunt or Ezekiel Ansah to play DT in a Tampa 2 I think Sheldon is a better fit. He has struggled against the run but he is very quick and agile for his size and fits the scheme well.

Pick Number 19. New York Giants

Players considered: DJ Fluker OT Alabama, Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Margus Hunt DE SMU.

Player projected: Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU.

The Giants love their DEs and I think Ziggy is a good situational pass rusher who can replace Osi on 3rd downs. He can also slide inside and play DT as Ziggy was a NG most of his college career. I think Ansah also eventually replaces Justin Tuck as a 3 down DE.

Pick Number 20. Chicago Bears

Players considered: Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma, DJ Fluker OT Alabama.

Player Projected: Lane Johnson.

It is simple in my mind, if the Bears sign a good LT such as Jermon Bushrod they go with Fluker, otherwise they draft Lane Johnson. If they draft anything except O-Line here Jay Cutler needs to just demand a trade before he gets killed.

Pick Number 21. Cincinnati Bengals

Players considered: Alec Ogeltree ILB Georgia.

Projected player: Alec Ogeltree ILB Georgia.

I put this up there with the Bengals signing Vontaze Burfict last year. A great LB with off the field issues. Ogeltree combined with Burfict and Rey Maualuga make for a dangerous linebacking core.

Pick Number 22. St. Louis Rams (Via Redskins)

Players considered: Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M, Tavon Austin WR West Virgina, DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson.

Player projected: DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson.

With this second pick the Rams suddenly have two starting receivers that could potentially pair with Danny Amendola and make a pretty solid receiving corps. They could also take a LB such as Manti Te'o or Kevin Minter and wait and take someone like Ryan Swope or Denard Robinson in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Pick Number 23. Minnesota Vikings

Players considered: Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St.

Player projected: Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St.

The Vikings desperately need help in the secondary and Xavier is a guy who should go much higher than this, if he is available they take him.

Pick Number 24. Indianapolis Colts

Players considered: Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame, Kevin Minter ILB LSU, Margus Hunt DE SMU.

Player projected: Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame.

The Colts need help on defense against both the pass and run, Manti makes an instant impact as a instinctive ILB who can cover as well as stuff the run. I could see Margus Hunt coming off the board here as well because of the Colts having envy towards the Texans and JJ Watt.

Pick Number 25. Seattle Seahawks

Players considered: Jonathan Hankins DT Ohio State, Tavon Austin WR West Virgina, Margus Hunt DE SMU, Datone Jones DE/OLB UCLA.

Player projected: Datone Jones DE/OLB UCLA.

Pete Carroll has to be concerned after watching his pass rush disappear once Chris Clemons went down in the playoffs. Datone Jones is a player of similar build to Clemons who can play both DE and OLB making him a near perfect fit for the Seahawks defense (a perfect fit would have been Ziggy Ansah).

Pick Number 26. Green Bay Packers

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU, Eric Reid FS LSU, Kevin Minter ILB LSU.

Player projected: Kevin Minter ILB LSU.

A good fit as Minter is an athletic and instinctive ILB who excels against the run. The combination of Minter and BJ Raji should help plug up the middle against the run.

Pick Number 27. Houston Texans

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU.

Player projected: Margus Hunt DE SMU.

And the rich get richer....If they pull this off the Texans will have the scariest pair of interior pash rushers in the NFL. Pairing JJ Watt and Margus Hunt seems a bit unfair, which is exactly why I hope the Texans manage to get Hunt.

Pick Number 28. Denver Broncos

Players considered: Eddie Lacy RB Alabama, Eric Reid FS LSU.

Player projected: Eric Reid FS LSU.

This is precisely who the Broncos needed in the AFC Championship to prevent the ridiculous score that sent the Ravens to the Super Bowl. Eric Reid is the best FS or SS in this class in my opinion and makes the Broncos defense even scarier.

Pick Number 29. New England Patriots

Players considered: Tavon Austin WR West Virgina.

Player projected: Tavon Austin WR West Virgina.

This Austin kid is like Wes Welker but with the speed of Brandon Lloyd. If he falls to the Pats they have to take him to give Brady someone who doesn't play TE to throw too.

Pick Number 30. Atlanta Falcons

Players considered: Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame.

Player projected: Tyler Eifer TE Notre Dame.

This one just makes since, whether Gonzales comes back or not the Falcons need a replacement for him and this kid from Notre Dame is the best TE in this draft.

Pick Number 31. San Francisco 49ers

Players considered: Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M.

Players projected: Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M.

Honestly the 49ers don't have a real need. I think they should get a good no.1 target for Kaepernick and, Swope despite being a small reach, is my top rated WR in this draft and I think could be the best white guy to play receiver in the NFL, beating out current no.1 white guy Jordy Nelson. The 49ers really could take anybody here so I won't be surprised by whoever they take.

Pick Number 32. Baltimore Ravens

Players considered: Arthur Brown ILB Kansas St.

Player projected: Arthur Brown ILB Kansas St.

The Baltimore Ravens make NFL history by setting the record for most player named Arthur on an NFL roster. All jokes aside this kid is the considered by some to be better than Te'o, Minter, and Ogeltree and he will be a good step in the right direction of replacing Ray Lewis.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Mock Draft 2013 Part 1. Picks 1-15

NNF's first Mock Draft, taking on the 2013 NFL draft.

Pick number 1. Kansas City Chiefs

Players considered: Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M, Geno Smith QB West Virgina.

Player projected: Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M.

After reports that the Chiefs are the leaders in the Alex Smith sweepstakes along with reports saying Andy Reid was impressed with Joeckel I figure this makes the most sense. The apparent imminent departure of LT Brandon Albert also adds to the likelihood of this pick.

Pick Number 2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Players considered: Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Jarvis Jones OLB/DE Georgia.

Player projected: Jarvis Jones OLB/DE Georgia

This is a perfect fit with Gus Bradley coming in from Seattle, he is going to want a guy who can play the Leo or Elephant position, a stand up hybrid 34 OLB/43 DE. Jarvis Jones is the perfect fit here, although Ziggy would be a great fit as well he is less polished and therefore I think he falls, maybe even to the Seahawks at 25.

Pick Number 3. Oakland Raiders

Players considered: Alec Ogeltree ILB Georgia, Shariff Floyd DT Florida, Star Lotulelei DT Utah.

Player projected: Shariff Floyd DT Florida.

Basically, I see this as Shariff if Star doesn't check out because of his heart condition. If he does check out then Star is the pick. Either one will be a good replacement for Richard Seymour and both fills a need and qualifies at the best available player.

Pick Number 4. Philadelphia Eagles

Players considered: Star Louteleli DT Utah, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon, Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan, Jonathan Cooper OG/C North Carolina, Chance Warmack OG Alabama.

Player projected: Star Louteleli DT Utah

There are a lot of directions the Eagles could go here, I personally think they need more help on O-Line than on D-Line however they could get a quality player, such as Oregon OT/OG Kyle Long, in the 2nd or 3rd round. With the release of Cullen Jenkins they need a replacement for him and I think Star fits perfectly. If Star doesn't check out then I expect they'd flip a few coins and take either Ansah, Dion, or Montgomery.

Pick Number 5. Detroit Lions

Players considered: Bjoern Werner DE Florida State, Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M, Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon.

Player projected: Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU

With Vanden Bosch and possibly Cliff Avril leaving the Lions need a pass rusher here and KeKe is the one most suited for the Lions Wide-9 scheme. Dion Jordan makes sense too, but I think he is more of a 34 OLB as he is more polished in coverage and against the run than against the pass. KeKe is a freakish speedy athlete at DE who will be a good fit in Detroit.

Pick Number 6. Cleveland Browns

Players considered: Cordarrele Patterson WR Tennessee, Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M, Geno Smith QB West Virgina, Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan.

Player projected: Geno Smith QB West Virgina.

I'm working off of the assumption that the Chiefs get Alex Smith and Joe Flacco remains a Raven. Under that assumption the Browns get their franchise QB here. If either of those guys come to Cleveland then the pick here should be Swope (who I have rated as the most complete receiver in this class) but will probably be Patterson.

Pick Number 7. Arizona Cardinals

Players considered: Matt Barkley QB USC

Player projected: Matt Barkley QB USC

According to reports the Cardinals want Barkley, I think he falls to them and the Cardinals get the next Mark Sanchez. I'd take JaMarcus Russell over Matt Barkley. I do not think Barkley will be very good, however if anyone can transform this guy into a good QB it would be Arians.

Pick Number 8. Buffalo Bills

Players considered: Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M, Bjoern Werner DE Florida State, Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU.

Player projected: Bjoern Werner DE Florida State

More than likely either Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Nassib, or Chase Daniel will be Buffalo's QB next season, for that reason I say they take a DE to pair with Mario Williams. Bjoern Werner is the best available DE here with many analysts having him listed as the no.1 DE on the board.

Pick Number 9. New York Jets

Players considered: Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Jonathan Cooper OG/C North Carolina, Chance Warmack OG Alabama.

Player projected: Chance Warmack OG Alabama

The Jets need O-Line help in particular at guard, Chance Warmack is the best fit because he played in a similar power running scheme in Bama. I personally like Coop from NCU better, but Warmack is a better scheme fit.

Pick Number 10. Tennessee Titans

Players considered: Jonathan Cooper OG/C North Carolina, Eric Fisher Central Michigan.

Player projected: Jonathan Cooper OG/C

The Titans need O-Line help bad if they want to get CJ2K back on track. They have also talked about adding in Zone Read concepts, Zone Blocking fits Coops strengths very well and he will make an excellent addition to the Titans O-Line.

Pick Number 11. San Diego Chargers

Players considered: Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan, Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma.

Player Projected: Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan.

Fish is a steal at 11 as I personally think he is as good as Luke Joeckel. He is the first step in remaking this team into a good team by adding someone who can keep Phillip Rivers upright. I'm not sold on Phillip Rivers as a franchise QB but this kid will certainly help him.

Pick Number 12. Miami Dolphins

Players considered: Tavon Austin WR West Virgina, Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M, Cordarrele Patterson WR Tennessee, Dee Milliner CB Alabama, Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St, Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma.

Player Projected: Dee Milliner CB Alabama.

And the constant bad moves continue, don't get me wrong Dee is a good corner but corner shouldn't be a need for them. If Ireland would let the moths out of his wallet and pay Sean Smith he wouldn't need a new corner, and if he had kept Brandon Marshall last year they might have a shot at the AFC East this year. Or if he'd pay Reggie Bush or Jake Long...or anyone.

Pick Number 13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Players considered: Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St., Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M.

Player projected: Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M.

The Buccaneers could go a million different directions here. I like the idea of a Corner here but I think they go after a guy like Sean Smith or Tracy Porter in free agency. This frees them up to draft a pass rusher to help against the passing attacks in the NFC South.

Pick Number 14. Carolina Panthers

Players considered: Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB BYU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Cordarele Patterson WR Tennesse, Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M, John Jenkins DT/NG Georgia.

Player projected: John Jenkins DT/NG Georgia.

The panthers need a good DT on their defense and despite his immense size I think Jenkins is a 43 DT because of his ability to put pressure on the QB and his ability to shed a double team and stuff the run. The Panthers also need a receiver but I think Ryan Swope, a guy who I feel is the best receiver in this class, will be available in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Pick Number 15. New Orleans Saints

Players considered: Margus Hunt DE SMU, Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU, Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon, Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame, Kevin Minter ILB LSU.

Player Projected: Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon.

The Saints need help on defense, period. They could take Margus Hunt who I think is the next JJ Watt, or they could take a LB like Manti Te'o who has played in the 34 before. I think all of the Saints fans are going to be screaming for Sam Montgomery just like they did with Glenn Dorsey back when they took Sedrick Ellis. This time they go with Oregon DE/OLB Dion Jordan, who is just a giant physical freak. This gives the Saints the elite pass rushing OLB they need for Rob Ryan's 34 defense.

Part 2 can be found here: http://smithsnnfblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/mock-draft-par-deux-picks-16-32.html

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

2013 Free Agency: Running Backs and Fullbacks

My second free agency article, here we get into a position that has more meat on it than the Quarterbacks. I will be going over the Running Backs. There are many more actual free agent Running Backs than there are free agent Quarterbacks.

Position: RB/FB

Rating: B+

Notable Free Agent RBs: Steven Jackson(STL), Reggie Bush(MIA), Ahmad Bradshaw(NYG), Shonn Greene(NYJ), Danny Woodhead(NE), Chris Ivory(NO), LaRod Stevens Howling(ARI), Darius Reynaud(TEN).

Potential Cutable/Tradable RBs: Michael Turner(ATL), DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewar(CAR), Maurice Jones-Drew(JAX), Darren McFadden(OAK), Pierre Thomas(NO)

Notable Free Agent FB's: James Casey(HOU), Mike Cox(ATL)

The biggest names on the free agent market are guys like Reggie Bush, Steven Jackson, and Ahmad Bradshaw with the 2nd tier being Chris Ivory and Danny Woodhead.

The best fit for Reggie Bush would be in Green Bay, finally giving the Packers an every down back who can be an absolute beast in the passing game. Reggie would also be a good fit with the Eagles as another versatile running back, and would be a great fit if Chip uses some of his two back option schemes from Oregon that he ran with LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner or DeAnthony Smith and Kenjon Barner. A team who could surprise some teams by picking up Reggie Bush would be the Indianapolis Colts, he would be a great fit in Indy if they continue to run an offense similar to the one ran by Bruce Arians last year.

Ahmad Bradshaw was really a shock to me, I know he's dealt with injuries but he is a really good running back. I like Ahmad either going to the Jets as a compliment or replacement to Shonn Greene. Ahmad could also be brought back by the Giants according to reports and really, I think his best bet is to stay in New York either with the Giants or Jets.

Steven Jackson is still a beast even at this point in his career and would be a great fit in Green Bay for the same reasons I gave for Reggie. Steven is still massive every down back who can run up the middle as well as catch out of the backfield. Steven is also one of the best blocking running backs in the NFL. I'd love to see him in a place where has a chance at winning a ring like Green Bay. He could also be a great fit as a Steeler bringing the power back back to Pittsburgh, or with the Bengals to work in a timeshare with the Law Offices of Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis.

As far as Chris Ivory goes, Ivory would be best served by staying with the Saints because Sean Payton really likes using him and Ivory could be in for a promotion with Pierre Thomas possibly becoming expendable enough to be traded or released. Payton really likes Ivory and I think he will use him much more than he was used this year, if he did leave though, he could be a great fit in the zone running schemes used by Washington, Houston, San Francisco, Oakland, and Seattle.

Danny Woodhead would be a great fit as a replacement for Reggie Bush in Miami but I would not be shocked at all if Rex Ryan decided to bring back one of his favorite players and bring Danny back to the Jets. Woodhead would also be a good fit as a 3rd down back in Washington or Houston as he has good receiving ability and seems to have good enough vision to read off of the Zone Blocking scheme.

As far as guys being traded or cut, Michael Turner is boring, he is a big slow back who is not very good at this point. He could be a good short yardage backup running back in a place like San Francisco, Seattle,Tennessee, Giants, or possibly the Jets but I don't expect him to be a starter again.

I honestly don't expect MoJo Drew or Run DMC to be traded, although I think Marcel Reece is a better running back for the Raiders than McFadden. Neither of these guys are getting traded, end of story.

Pierre Thomas however could be cut by the Saints to make room for Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram. I figure either the P.T. Cruiser or Chris Ivory will not be a Saints next year, and I'm hoping if one has to go it's Pierre. Pierre Thomas would be a good fit just about anywhere in the NFL as a starter or at the very least a 3rd down back. His skill set makes him very versatile and able to fit just about anywhere.

Of the FBs the only ones worth noting are James Casey and Mike Cox. James Casey is a versatile FB/H-Back/TE who can make an immediate impact as both a blocker and a receiver. He would be a good fit for any of the Zone Blocking teams like Washington and Houston as well as any of the Spread teams. Mike Cox is more of a throwback straight up in line blocker, he would be a good fit for power running teams like the Jaguars, Jets, Cardinals, or Carolina.

Next time I will be covering receivers, with such names as Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, and Percy Harvin out there it should be an interesting group.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Rob Ryan to be Named Saints Defensive Coordinator

  According to ESPN's Adam Schefter league sources have said that the New Orleans Saints are going to hire former Cowboys Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan to the same position. This a huge hiring in my mind and puts the Saints in position to make a run next year. As I've said before the Saints have the personnel to run Rob Ryan's preferred 1-gapping 34 defense (breakdown of the 1-Gap 34 defense can be found here  http://chalkdustnnf.blogspot.com/2013/01/34-defense.html) and who knows, maybe the switch to the 34 and Rob Ryan joining the Saint could be enough to lure Dallas' free agent linebacker Anthony Spencer to the Big Easy.
 
  I'm excited about this hiring and am even more pumped up for next season than I was before. If the Saints can cut out the fat (here's looking to you Sedrick Ellis) and let the lean talent shine (Martez Wilson fits here) the Saints could be en route to the NFC Championship game for a climatic battle between the Saints and 49ers. Now I'm definitely getting ahead of myself here, but if the Saints could have a defense in the top 15 and keep there offense at the level it's been the last two years the Saints could easily cut through the NFC South. Just remember, no team has ever repeated as NFC South champions and the Saints will have a defense not seen very often in the NFC (Only 5 teams in the NFC run the 34 including the Saints with others being the 49ers, Cardinals, Redskins, and Packers.)

Again, right now these are only reports, nothing official, but Schefter generally knows what he's talking about. If this hiring does turn out to be true the Saints will be the only team in the NFC South to run the 34 defense, and behind Rob Ryan they will show why the 34 defense is becoming the best defensive alignment in football.

  Update:2/8/13 As of today Georgia defensive Coordinator Todd Grantham has taken his name out of consideration for the Saints DC Vacancy. Rob Ryan has also according to sources said he believes he has the job. Sean Payton also said that they are having trouble getting permission to interview assistant coaches. All of the signs are pointing to Rob Ryan being the Saints next Defensive Coordinator.

QB's To Watch in Free Agency 2013

  The next event on the slate on the NFL calendar is free agency. There are a few big names out there that could make an overall dull free agent class interesting. I'll break them down position by position and give the biggest free agents and where I think they'll go and where they'd be a good fit.

Position: QB

Rating: C-

Potential Cuts/Trades: Alex Smith(SF) Tim Tebow(NYJ) Michael Vick(PHI) Matt Flynn(SEA).

Notable Free Agents: Jason Campbell(CHI) Chase Daniel(NO)

  The crop of Quarterbacks is so weak that a guy like Chase Daniel can be considered notable, however Jason Campbell would be notable even if this were stronger class. Jason Campbell needs to get another shot somewhere, this guy is too good to be a clipboard holder on the sideline. JC would be a good fit for Bruce Arians' offense as he has the arm talent and touch needed to run Arian's deep bomb offense. He could also be a good fit in Kansas City with Andy Reid and his aggressive west coast variant.

  As far as Chase Daniel he has the ability to be decent starting Quarterback but would be best served by remaining as a backup in New Orleans. Chase's best fit outside of continuing as Drew Brees' backup would be to go to Buffalo with former Saints Offensive Coordinator Doug Marrone. More than likely Chase will be a backup wherever he goes but I think he could be a 9-10 win starting Quarterback if given a shot with decent talent.

  The guys who could be cut or traded are much more interesting, with the group being headlined by Alex Smith. Alex would be a good fit for any team with a strong running game and an at least serviceable defense. Enter Cleveland, the browns have Trent Richardson to lead their run game along with a few decent weapons such as Josh Gordon and Greg Little in the pass game. On defense they have a very opportunistic secondary and an overall good defense. The only other fit I see would be in KC because of Jamaal Charles and a decent defense.

  The other interesting ones are two left-handed athletic Quarterbacks, Tim Tebow and Mike Vick. Tebow's best fit would be in Philadelphia if Chip brought some of his Oregon option plays with him. If Chip is going to run a more boring offense then Tim could be a fit in Arizona as his game is similar to Big Ben. He has a cannon arm with good touch on his deep passes along with the ability to extend the play making him a good fit in Arians deep bomb heavy offense. I'll suggest Tim could also be on his way to Washington D.C. to be RGIII's backup. Washington makes the most sense as he would not bring much drama as he would have no chance of starting but would allow them to run the same offense they normally do if Griffin were to go down. No matter where Tim goes they need to add some option plays into the playbook just to take advantage of Tim's great running ability.

  Vick's best fit would be in the middle of a comfy chair watching tv while he still has some higher brain functions left. But if Vick insists on continuing to play then he could reunite with Andy in KC or could be a good fit for the Jets. Behind the Jet's O-Line Vick might be able to be a good enough Quarterback to win games for Gang Green. Honestly though, I think Vick is one hit away from being retired.

  Matt Flynn would be a good fit with the Jets as a game manager, or possibly in Buffalo running their spread offense. Flynn could also come home as a replacement for Chase Daniel in New Orleans. In all likeliness, Flynn stays put in Seattle unless he demands to be released.
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 I will be going over Running Backs in the next article.

Friday, February 1, 2013

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