Thursday, January 31, 2013

Players To Watch 2013 Draft Part 1

  As another NFL season comes to an end we all wait the unbearable last few days before we find out who the Super Bowl champion will be..........if we live in Baltimore or San Francisco. For the rest of us the biggest thing coming for our team is free agency, except this year free agency looks to be pretty pathetic and boring. That leaves the draft as the next thing most casual fans will be looking forward to (I personally can't wait for the combine but to each his own.) Here is a list of players I think will be truly intriguing including a few high rated prospects and a few potential mid to late round prospects.


 Dion Jordan
 Position:DE/OLB
 College:University of Oregon
 Conference: Pac 12
 Height: 6'7''
 Weight: 240 lbs.
 NFL.com Player Comparison: Julian Peterson
 NNF Player Comparison: DeMarcus Ware/ Patrick Willis hybrid
 Best Fit: New Orleans Saints


    Dion is a freak of nature, he has a massive frame that desperately cries for him to add some weight to it. His body looks like it could support another 30 lbs without him losing any of his tremendous speed. Which speaking of speed, he runs around a 4.5-4.6 40 yard dash which makes him faster than both Aldon Smith and Rob Gronkowski. He does rely on his speed a little too much and neglects his technique at times. His speed does make it impossible for you to leave him unblocked however, you can't simply run away from his because he can and will run you down. He did that numerous times to teams running the Zone Read and trying to read him. They'd hand it off away from him and he'd run them down. Or they'd run a speed option to his side and he'd get off the block and chase down the QB pivot, and get to the pitch man before he could gain more than a yard or two.


   Dion was also used by the Ducks in coverage against Tight Ends and Slot Receivers and he was able to match them stride for stride as well as being taller than them most of the time. As I've said before he could be the anti Gronk/Graham/Hernandez/ as he is as fast or faster than all of them and bigger than all of them. He should have no problem in coverage shutting down most Tight Ends in the NFL and could cover some faster slot receiver such as Wes Welker or Lance Moore because of his size. Dion does need to bulk up a little and needs to work on his technique, but a guy who is this big, this fast, and who doesn't shy away from contact will absolutely be a playmaker in the NFL. The landing spot that makes the most sense to me is the Saints at 15 but if he fell past 15 he could also go to the Steelers at 17 as James Harrison is getting up there.


 Barkevious Mingo
 Position:DE/OLB
 College:Louisiana State University
 Conference: SEC
 Height: 6'5''
 Weight: 240 lbs.
 NFL.com Player Comparison: DeMarcus Ware
 NNF Player Comparison: Aldon Smith
 Best Fit: Detroit Lions/ Miami Dolphins


    KeKe really looks to me more like an oversized safety than a defensive lineman, especially wearing that number 49 LSU jersey. Regardless this man is another freak of nature, although not as versatile as Dion he will probably go earlier in the draft than Dion. He will be drafted higher for one main reason, he played at LSU. KeKe has amazing potential as a pass rusher in either a 34 or a 43, I like him as a fit with the Lions as a wide 9 speed rusher or possibly in Philadelphia if they don't take an offensive lineman. Buffalo could also be interested in KeKe if they wait to take a QB until the 2nd or 3rd round.


   Mingo could be this years rookie sensation on defense much like Aldon Smith and JJ Watt were a year ago. If he somehow fell past the top 10 then Tampa Bay, Carolina, or Miami could pick him. If he went to Miami they could be a threat in the AFC East next season with Cameron Wake and Mingo rushing from opposite edges. However in all honesty I don't see him falling past the Lions at 5.


 Brian Schwenke
 Position:C/G
 College:University of California Berkeley
 Conference: Pac 12
 Height: 6'4''
 Weight: 300 lbs.
 NNF Player Comparison: Will Montgommery/ Chris Myers
 Best Fit: Washington Redskins/ Houston Texans/ New Orleans Saints


    Schwenke is a stereotypical Zone Blocking interior lineman like the ones used by Mike Shannahan in Washington or Gary Kubiak in Houston. He has shown versatility in starting at both Guard spots over the course of his first three years of college and playing the Center position in his Senior year. He showed good learning ability and smarts in learning all of the line calls quickly despite never having played center before. Looks to help teammates out when not covered and has shown elite twitch and burst when coming off the ball. Schwenke has shown great agility and understands how to use his low center of gravity and leverage to block larger opponents. At the Senior Bowl he was able to routinely beat mountain of a man John Jenkins from Georgia both in practices and in the game and has shown a consistent ability to beat larger men. He would be a great scheme fit in either Washington or Houston as well as on some of the spread teams such as the Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Panthers, and 49ers. He has all of the skills needed to be an excellent Zone Blocker and also to excel as a Pass Blocker, as the concepts are very similar. He should fall to the 3rd or 4th round simply because he is an interior lineman and they generally do not go early on, much like Tight Ends.


 EJ Manuel
 Position:QB
 College: Florida State University
 Conference: ACC
 Height: 6'5''
 Weight: 238 lbs.
 NFL.com Player Comparison: Blaine Gabbert
 NNF Player Comparison: Colin Kaepernick or a more mobile Ben Roethlisberger
 Best Fit: Arizona Cardinals/ Buffalo Bills


    EJ Manuel will be the best Quarterback to come out of this draft class, mark my words. And Mike Mayock of NFL Network comparing this kid to Blaine Gabbert is insulting, he's bigger, faster, stronger, and smarter than Gabbert. EJ reminds of Colin Kaepernick a lot, he has a cannon for an arm, is a natural runner, and is pretty accurate on his throws. The only other Quarterbacks in this draft who intrigue me are Geno Smith and Colin Klein. Manuel should be able to come in and make an impact immediately as a rookie if he went to Arizona or Buffalo and would be a good fit for both of those teams' systems.


   The Bills new coach Doug Marrone has said he will run a hybrid of the K-Gun offense and Sean Payton's spread offense (Marrone was Payton's OC in New Orleans before being hired as the HC of Syracuse). EJ Manuel would fit such an offense very well and would probably be given a few weeks to prepare as he would have to wait for Ryan Fitzpatrick to self-destruct. On the off chance Fitz didn't self destruct the Bills would still have a very talented Quarterback to groom as their future star. Also with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson on the roster he wouldn't have to carry the team and could be in a similar position as his former teammate Christian Ponder is in, in Minnesota with Adrian Peterson.


   The Cardinals will be running a spread em' out, air it out, deep throwing offense under Bruce Arians that would fit Manuel's strengths very well. The Cardinals also have the most underrated receiver in football in Larry Fitzgerald who is just waiting for someone with EJ's talent to throw the ball to him. The only other available Quarterbacks who really fit Arian's scheme at all are Tim Tebow and JaMarcus Russell, as they are both massive Quarterbacks with cannon's in the play of a right arm. EJ will probably be a late 3rd or early to mid 4th round pick and whoever picks him up will have a steal.


 Robert Alford
 Position:CB
 College:Southeastern Louisiana University
 Conference: Southland Conference (FCS)
 Height: 6'0''
 Weight: 185 lbs.
 NFL.com Player Comparison: William Middleton
 NNF Player Comparison: Morris Claiborne
 Best Fit: Houston Texans/ New Orleans Saints


    This kid has come busting onto the scene ever since the Senior Bowl in which he was covering the best receivers from the SEC and other conferences and shutting them down in practice. No receiver was able to get un-blanketed against Alford in the actual game or in practice. He also showed off his speed and return ability on the opening kickoff when he returned it almost all the way to the endzone. Robert is ridiculously fast running a 4.3-4.4 40 yard dash, he also has the technique and strength to play press coverage very effectively. When all is said and done Alford should go off the board in the 2nd or 3rd round and I could see him being a good fit with the Saints as they could use a better option at Cornerback than Patrick Robinson, plus Mickey Loomis likes his small school guys. He would also be a good fit with the Texans as they could use help at Corner and could be a solid pickup by a team like the Patriots or Bengals who have solid Cornerbacks but not any that are particularly great.




Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Rob Ryan With The Saints

  There was a report coming out last week that the Rams had hired Rob Ryan as their new Defensive Coordinator. Now Kevin Demoff, the team president has told the Rams website that they are not hiring Rob Ryan as their Defensive Coordinator. This opens up my original theory that the Saints could hire Rob Ryan as their Defensive Coordinator. The Saints have said that former Chiefs Head Coach Romeo Crennel was at the top of their wish list, however, they said that after Ryan was "hired" as the Rams DC.
 

  Looking at the possible D-Coordinators I feel like Rob Ryan and his mad scientist defense would be perfect for the Saints. Former Browns Head Coach Eric Mangini has also been discussed as being a candidate and is closer to Rob Ryan in his innovative and outside the box thinking. Much like Mangini, Rob has taken some seriously bad defenses and made them competive because of scheme alone. Romeo Crennel scares me a bit as a DC because he has historically ran the Patriots 2-Gap 34 defense (breakdown can be found here http://chalkdustnnf.blogspot.com/2013/01/34-defense.html) ,which the Saints do not have the personnel to run. His defense has worked well in other places such as Kansas City and New England however they had much better personnel. The 2-Gap 34 has also become outclasses by the faster 1-Gap 34 defense run by the Texans (can also be found here http://chalkdustnnf.blogspot.com/2013/01/34-defense.html).
 

  According to Adam Schefter the Saints were looking into possibly bringing in both Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini. I wouldn't have a problem with Co-Defensive Coordinators but I'd bring in Mangini and Rob Ryan as they have worked together many times before and had a really good defense going in Cleveland despite poor talent. Now I doubt that Mangini would come in as a co-defensive coordinator or even as a full time defensive coordinator, but it would be a nice idea.
 

  Looking at Dallas' defensive personnel the Saints have similar personnel. The Cowboys starting Nose Guard Jay Ratliff is 6'4'' and 303 lbs. Both Sedrick Ellis(6'1'' 307 lbs.) and Broderick Bunkley(6'2'' 308lbs.) are of similar size and have both played as Nose Guards before. Ellis played as a Nose Guard in Pete Carroll's hybrid "Leo" defense at USC. With Bunkley also playing as a Nose Guard in Denver before coming to New Orleans last season.
 

  Dallas' starting Defensive Tackles were Marcus Spears(6'4'' 315lbs.) and Jason Hatcher(6'6'' 305 lbs.) The Saints have Akiem Hicks (6'5'' 324lbs.) who could anchor the strong side and then play a smaller, quicker, man on the opposite side with either Cameron Jordan(6'4'' 287lbs.) or Tyrunn Walker(6'3'' 294lbs.) Rob would have to alter his scheme a little bit to fit some of the faster personnel the Saints have such as Cameron Jordan.
 

  The Cowboys Starting Outside Linebackers are Anthony Spencer (6'3'' 250 lbs.) and DeMarcus Ware (6'4'' 254 lbs.) They are both great pass rushers and the Saints have guys with the kind of potential to be like these two. Such as  Martez Wilson (6'4'' 254 lbs.), Junior Gallete (6'2'' 258 lbs.), and Braylon Broughton (6'6'' 272 lbs.) All of these guys have experience playing standing up and have been good pass rushers. These three are all a bit raw but full of potential as they have the size to take on an offensive tackle, as well as the speed (Gallete 4.67 40 time/Wilson 4.49/Broughton 4.55) to be amazing pass rushers.
 

  Their is one more piece that the Saints could add through the draft, and that is the ridiculously fast and versatile Oregon outside linebacker Dion Jordan. This kid is a freak of nature, standing at 6'7'' and weighing in at 241 lbs. Dion Jordan is one of the only players I have seen who can both excel as a pass rusher and in coverage. Oregon would line this kid up against slot receiver and he would cover them effectively. Dion could potentially be the Bane of Gronkowski's existence as he is faster (Dion ran a 4.59 Gronk ran a 4.68) and taller than Gronk (Dion is 6'7'' Gronk is 6'6'')


All in all I see Rob being a perfect fit for the Saints defense and I think Mickey Loomis should and will draft Dion Jordan with 15th pick in the draft.

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Super Bowl Prediction

  Here we go, the throw down for the ages, the battle of the brothers, the Harbowl, which to me sounds like you're saying hair ball with a thick southern drawl, but I digress. We have two of the best defenses in the NFL today as well as the most athletic quarterback to start in a Super Bowl in NFL history. The Ravens come in with the best defensive player of the last decade, one of the best Linebackers of all time, and a guaranteed first ballot Hall of Famer in Ray Lewis. The Matchup of the night will be Kaepernick against Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, if Kaepernick can beat them consistently the 49ers should win this game.
 

  For the Ravens to be successful on offense they need to forget everything they know about offense and throw the ball. The offense has to go through Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin if they want to have a chance. The biggest matchup for the Ravens will be their offensive line against Aldon and Justin Smith and Ahmad Brooks. If Michael Oher and Bryan McKinnie can shut down Brooks and Aldon Smith they will be off to good start. The Ravens will have to throw on the sidelines for the most success as the 49ers weakest link is their secondary. They are not that bad but they are worse than the rest of the defense, and the easiest to exploit. If they can get the ball to Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith on the outside they could open up the middle for throws to the Tight End, Dennis Pitta and get Ray Rice some running room.
 

  The biggest thing the 49ers have to do is neutralize Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata and keep them out of the backfield. They also will want to shut down the deep pass and force Flacco to stay patient and check it down, Flacco is bound to try and force something eventually and give the 49ers defense a chance to make a play on the ball. If Kaepernick is allowed to get out of the pocket the Ravens could be in for a long game. The biggest threat the 49ers have is the read option plays out of the pistol as the Ravens cannot simply play Kaepernick as the Falcons showed us last week when they got gashed by Frank Gore and LaMichael James.
 

  The Pistol will make the Ravens have to do something they don't very well, play restrained and disciplined defense. They will not be able to feed off of the emotion of Ray Lewis's last game as much because if they are out of position at any point they will be in danger of giving up a big run. If they start to overplay the run they'll be in danger of getting gashed by the play action however, so they have to remain disciplined at all times. If the Pistol can keep the Ravens off balance the way I think it will then the 49ers will win this game.


Final Score Prediction
Ravens 23 (Flacco pass TD, Rice rush TD, early defensive TD)
49ers 35 (Kaepernick 2 Pass TD, 1 Rush TD, Gore Rush TD, pick six off of Flacco to ice the game)

 As much as I'm pulling for Ray Lewis I just can't see Flacco not screwing this up. Kaepernick becomes the first of the the read option quarterbacks to win a super bowl and ushers in the beginning of the era of the Pistol Offense in the NFL.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

What The Saints shift to a 34 Defense means

  Sean Payton is back with a vengeance. Less than a week after being reinstated he has fired the architect of the worst defense in NFL history, Steve Spagnuolo. Payton also announced the Saints will be switching to a 3-4 defense. That means the Saints will need a new DC and will have repercussions for all of the Saints defensive personnel.

1. Rob Ryan would should be hired as the Saints DC: Out of all the DC candidates out there, the two most well versed in the 34 defense are Rob Ryan and Romeo Crennel. I personally think Rob Ryan has the best chance of turning the Saints defense around as he has had success everywhere he has gone while Romeo has had only marginal success since leaving the Patriots. Rob Ryan is one of the best at tweaking his scheme to fit his players which is something the Saints desperately need.
Update: Rob Ryan has just been hired as the Rams Defensive Coordinator.
Update 2: Mike Florio of pro football talk has speculated Eric Mangini could be making a return to coaching this year, and he would make a an interesting fit as the Saints new DC. I'd prefer him over Romeo because of his versatility and innovative approach to football.

Update 3: ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting the Saints are interested in former Chiefs HC Romeo Crennel as well as ESPN analyst Eric Mangini. According to Schefty the Saints would prefer Romeo over Mangini who hasn't coached since he was fired by the Browns. Romeo would be a good fit and coached the New England Patriot's defense over the course of three super bowl titles. His defenses with the Browns and Chiefs were also strong units.
 
2. Sedrick Ellis should be released: The Saints have no use for Sedrick Ellis any more. Akiem Hicks is a better fit as a Nose Guard and Sedrick Ellis costs too much to keep and is not a good fit in a 34 defense. Akiem Hicks would be a better fit as a Nose Guard, however he could also be used as a Strong side end with Broderick Bunkley who has played Nose Guard before with the Broncos, anchoring the middle.


3. Junior Gallete/Martez Wilson will be moved to Linebacker: They will be a great fit as pass rushing 34 linebackers. Even if they can't start they can be 3rd down pass rushers right of the bat and Martez will benefit greatly as he has played linebacker before and could actually cover unlike a lot of 34 Outside Linebackers. I'll imagine since Spags got canned David Hawthorne and Chris Chamberlain will be out of a job as well, leaving the Outside Linebacker spot wide open. Other potential outside linebackers could be Braylon Broughton who despite his immense size (6'6'' 272 lbs.) could play outside and is fast enough to cover a Tight End or Running Back if he had too (he ran a 4.55  40 yard dash time at the combine.) Honestly, I'd prefer to see Braylon and Martez be the starters as they are ridiculously fast and have better upside, with Gallete being a 3rd down pass rusher.


4. Jon Vilma will be back: The Saints, by switching to a 34 have addressed the problem of having two  starting Middle Linebackers, they'll start them both. Jon Vilna and Curtis Lofton could become a great tandem of Inside Linebackers next season. They could keep Scott Shanle as a backup but should continue to look for another inside linebacker. If they do decide to let Vilma go the could draft Manti Te'o at 15 to replace Vilma.


I think the Saints will be back to usual form next year, winning the NFC south and this change on defense could be a great thing for the Saints.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Shoelace and the Doughboy

  In the last week we have been given big pieces of news about some project players, including Michigan Quarterback Denard "Shoelace" Robinson, a player who has gotten me in trouble many times with over predicting his ability as a passer. They also had news come out about a player who has made many a sports analyst look like a fool by over predicting his passing ability, JaMarcus "The DoughBoy" Russell.
 
  Ahh Denard Robinson......where did I go wrong. Oh right, thinking that a 5'11'' track star could become a QB. Well I'm going to go out on another limb, and probably fall off of it and die again. I'll say Denard will be a success as a Darren Sproles/LaMichael James/Randall Cobb/Percy Harvin, or more historically, Brad Smith/Kordell Stewart type of player. I could see him being drafted by Andy Reid in Kansas City to add another rushing/receiving threat. With a player like Jamaal Charles in the backfield and guys like Shoelace and Dexter McCluster in the slot, Reid could add a lot of versatility to Kansas City's offense. Other potential landing spots could be in Carolina as their answer to Darren Sproles, Jaquizz Rodgers, and Doug Martin in the NFC south, and could be a potential backup/emergency QB so they could run the zone read plays if Cam went down. Dallas is crazy enough to draft Denard and if Al Davis was still alive I could see the Raiders going after him. Other landing spots could be the 49ers (Jim's crazy and has been adding speed to his offense), Jets (anything for the headlines.....), Falcons (Dimitrioff is a Belichick disciple and as such should love shoelace's versatility.), and Patriots (Bill loves versatility and will need a new slot receiver next year since Wes Welker will more than likely not be wearing a flying elvis on his helmet next year).

 
   JaMarcus Russell, one of the, if not the biggest bust in NFL draft history. Everybody thought this guy was going to be the greatest QB ever, okay maybe a bit over done but still, they thought this kid was going to be good. Regardless, I've been a guy who has always thought if JaMarcus ever got serious about football he could be a great QB. He appears to have done that, as he has gotten together with former NFL greats Marshall Faulk and Jeff Garcia to help him with his reads and accuracy as well as football IQ. He also has Olympian Ato Boldo helping him on fitness and speed training, and his mentor Mike Clayton (former LSU/NFL receiver) being the driving force behind Russell's newfound dedication.

 

  JaMarcus is going to have to dispel the notion that he has rightfully earned as an overweight quitter with no mental toughness. If I'm Bruce Arians, I offer this kid an incentive based contract, similar to Randy Moss's contract with 49ers, and bring him in to be my QB in Arizona. Now, you don't give him anything, if he wants to start he'll have to beat out Kevin Kolb or whatever QB's are on the roster. You don't give the man a thing unless he earns it. If he truly has changed you now have one of the more notable QB guru's who's worked with another jelly doughnut loving QB named Ben as well as rookie Andrew Luck. A now dedicated QB with a bazooka for an arm throwing to Larry Fitzgerald. That sounds like a winning formula to me. Other QB needy teams that could give him a shot would be Kansas City,NYJ(again, anything for a headline), Cleveland, and possibly Buffalo as Doug Marrone has indicated he wants to run an offense similar to the offense the Saints have run (Saints OC '06-'08) and a QB with a cannon would be good. Come to think of it their is one more possibly fit, the Saints. Sean Payton has expressed interest in JaMarcus before and Chase Daniel could be on his way out and some team's are so QB desperate they might consider giving Chase a shot to start. JaMarcus could be a great project for Sean to turn into the next great Saints QB after Drew Brees takes his place in Canton.

All in all I think both of these places have near infinite upside if they continue to work hard and could both be starters in the 2013 or 2014 season.